Landing The Most Lucrative MBA Jobs In PE, VC & Hedge Funds
Maria |
July 13, 2021

On this week’s episode of Business Casual, listen to John, Caroline and Maria tackle TWO topics: 

First, many post-MBA jobs are known to be extremely lucrative. Among the most sought after roles are roles in private equity, venture capital and hedge funds. What does it take to get one of these roles? How does one get a chance at entry into what can be considered an “exclusive club”? 

Secondly, a lot of MBA programs are dropping their requirement for two letters of recommendations for only requiring ONE. Is this going to be a trend? Why are schools moving in this direction? And what makes for a strong recommendation letter? 

Listen to find out!

Episode Transcript

[00:00:07.330] – John

Hi, everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Welcome to Business Casual, our weekly podcast featuring my co host Maria Wich Vila and Caroline Diarte Edwards. Maria is the founder of Applicant Lab. And Caroline, of course, is the former director of admissions at INSEAD, who now is co founder of Fortuna Admissions and advises a lot of applicants on how to get into a great school. So we have two topics today. First topic is we are seeing more schools, and we expect to see more schools go with only one recommendation letter for applicants. Columbia Business School and MIT Sloan are two of the M7 who do this. We have heard that there will be another major school shortly to announce one recommendation letter policy. We’re going to talk about is this going to be a trend and why and why is it so difficult to get good recommendation letters to begin with? The other topic we’re going to explore we’ll do this first is the jobs post. MBA really are among the most lucrative jobs available to an MBA graduate. And that would be those jobs in private equity, venture capital and hedge funds that pay massive amounts of money to people.

 

[00:01:21.280] – John

Just give you a sense of this. Stanford MBA last year who went into private equity, their average first year compensation, $200,667 investor capital, $197,000. Those numbers include someone at Stanford who went into private equity at a base salary of $400,000, and someone else who went into venture capital reported a $300,000 based salary. Now you might think that there aren’t a whole lot of people who are in this position to take these jobs, to get these jobs, but in fact, today an increasing number of people who are in the elite MBA programs are seemingly landing them. So at Harvard Business School last year, 18% of the class went into private equity, 5% into venture capital and 7% in hedge funds. At Stanford, 15% went into private equity, 9% in venture capital. At Wharton, a little bit less so, but not so less, 12% into private equity and little over 4% adventure capital. What does it take to get one of these jobs, Caroline?

 

[00:02:27.710] – Caroline

Well, I think they’re really cherry picking students from top business schools. So they’re looking for often blue chip credentials. Right. So they’re hiring candidates who have worked in banking or perhaps have even worked in another private equity house or bench capital before coming to business school. That is the ideal background, right. They love hiring people from the industry, but otherwise, if there are any career switches and it’s incredibly difficult industry to switch into because they tend to hire people who, as I said, who are already in it. And so many people want to get into it. So it’s incredibly difficult to get hired into it if you don’t have that background. But otherwise they tend to hire people from investment banking or other financial services backgrounds and also people from the top consulting firm. So typically McKinsey, Bayne and BCG, those candidates can have a shot at getting interviews with private equity and venture capital firms.

 

[00:03:28.290] – John

Yeah. So it’s almost like an exclusive little club. An entry into the club is almost dependent on whether or not you’ve even worked in the club before or have one of these, like, elite type jobs at an investment banking firm that’s very well known and highly selective, or a highly selective elite global consulting firm to even have a chance to enter through the crack in the door. Maria, do you agree with all that?

 

[00:03:57.410] – Maria

Yeah, I think there’s a difference between private equity versus venture capital. The two are often lumped together with their cute little acronyms, but they are actually fairly different in terms of not only the work that they’re doing, but what groups of people they hire from. So I think my gut is that it’s easier to get into VC because if you have helped build a business before or if you can show that you add value to their assessment process in terms of maybe technical expertise or some other type of expertise of growing a business, I think that VC is a bit more open. Private equity, though, is a pretty specialized skill set. And part of the reason why they hire people who have already done it is because they know they won’t have to spend so much time training folks on what the job is. I mean, it’s a job that really values intense work ethic. And if somebody did two years of an analyst program on Wall Street and then from there leverage that to get a job, say two years at a private equity firm, then private equity firms coming to the MBA program.

 

[00:04:54.690] – Maria

So a pretty good idea that the people that they’re hiring know what they’re doing. So I sort of understand why they are this way. I think there is this. My former boss, my first job out of College had been a former banker at Lazard Freyer’s Investment Bank. And he taught me how to build the financial models that they use. And one of the things he said that he was pretty bitter with me. He was like, I spend 100 hours a week and I sacrificed two of the best years of my life in order to learn this stuff. And you’re learning it, and you don’t have to sacrifice so much. And he was actually sort of bitter about it. He was actually very bitter about it. He was actually very bitter about it. Like, it’s not fair. Like, you’re out of here by 07:00 p.m. Every night and you’re going to walk away with the same skill set that I sacrificed so much for. And so I also think that there’s a certain element of and I think we see this with the medical school field as well, with people who do residencies. And you hear these hellish stories of like the 7500 hours shift in the residency.

 

[00:05:46.810] – Maria

I think that part of it may be this idea that I went through this horrible boot camp, and I’m only going to respect people even if they can do the job. I’m not going to respect them unless they also suffered in the same way. But that’s just my own armchair psychologist take on it.

 

[00:06:04.430] – John

In other words, you’ve got to pay your dues. You’re going to be put through a boot camp. You’re going to be given hell. And if you’re not, you’re not worthy.

 

[00:06:11.770] – Maria

Yeah. I knew how to build a model as good or better than the typical banker by the time I was done, because Lazard in particular is very good with modeling. And so learning from him taught me the skills. But he was like, yeah, but you didn’t really earn it the way I earned it. I’m like, okay, buddy.

 

[00:06:27.890] – John

Why do these firms pay so much money?

 

[00:06:31.280] – Maria

Because they charge a lot of money, right? They charge their clients money. They make money for their clients, and they take a lot of good care from that. If they buy a firm, a company in private equity, let’s say they buy a company for $500 million and then sell it for $3 billion, they get a cut of that as they should. And so they pay their staff accordingly.

 

[00:06:55.170] – John

We will explain what carry is a really interesting element of the compensation. So as high as the base salaries or the sign on bonuses might be wealth, the real gold in these jobs is in the so called carry. Who wants to explain what carry is?

 

[00:07:13.710] – Caroline

Well, it’s the percentage that you will get. It’s part of the ownership of the companies that you’re investing. And typically you have to stay with the organization for a certain lengths of time to realize that upside. And it’s going to be worth something if ultimately the company is sold, as Maria said, and you realize a big upside. But as you say, is often how they make the really big Bucks.

 

[00:07:41.030] – John

Yeah. And the other interesting thing, of course, about these industries is that they’re not like McKinsey, Bane, BCG or Morgan Stanley or CD or Apple or Facebook or Google or Amazon. They hire generally in the ones and twos from MBA programs, and they tend to hire only from the most elite schools. I mentioned the stats from Harvard, Stanford and Wharton. Once you leave those three schools, these stats are so small, most schools don’t break them down in their employment reports. So outside of a Blackstone or Carlisle, two of the real big players, it’s almost hard to find these jobs because the players are generally unknown. They’re not well known, they’re not that big. So when they hire someone, it’s a big deal. And that, I would think, makes it that much more difficult to penetrate these industries. Do you think?

 

[00:08:37.480] – Caroline

Yeah, for sure. They’re hand picking candidates. And as you say, they’re often not high visibility first. They need to have such high visibility. So it’s very much word of mouth.

 

[00:08:50.990] – John

Do you have to know somebody to get into this? So let’s say you haven’t worked as an analyst for a PE or venture capital firm. Is it impossible to get in if you don’t really work hard on the networking aspect of getting into one of these firms?

 

[00:09:09.750] – Maria

That’s one of the benefits of business school. Right. Is that you’re going to be in classes with people who are either doing VC already or are going to do it soon. And so they might not be able to hire you right away, but they might be in a position to hire you several years later. So I have several classmates who did not start in DC right after business school, but they went to either very innovative divisions of large companies or they went to start their own company and successfully sold it. And so then at that point they entered the VC space later on. I do think with VC it’s easier. And I do think that with enough networking, which is, again, the value when we talk about like, oh, these more elite business schools tend to not give as much scholarship money. Well, there’s a reason for that, right. Because you are getting a network that if you hustle enough, you could convert into these more lucrative jobs, right?

 

[00:09:58.780] – John

Exactly. Now, you could look at this as an opportunity or as a problem. Private equity, venture capital and hedge funds. This is totally a white, male dominated field. And if you look at the stats, they’re really startling. There was a McKinsey study back in 2020 only a year ago, and it’s found that only 20% of senior leaders at private equity firms in the US are women, less than 2% are black, less than 12% of people of color. Another study released last year by women in VC found that less than 5% of venture capital firm partners are women, and only a third of those are women of color. Now one wonders, okay, with all of this emphasis on diversity and inclusion and the pressure being placed not only on these firms but firms overall, is there a crack in the door to allow more women and more people of color who have MBAs a shot at these three industries? I will tell you that one school thinks that way, and that is UVA Garden, which just announced a new program. It’s a full ride scholarship program for twelve people every single year who are either women or people of color into a two year curated experience that basically is meant to prepare you for one of the three industries, VC, PE or hedge funds.

 

[00:11:31.680] – John

And it will include everything from an internship to sponsorship by one of the firms to ongoing lectures to an independent project where you produce a pitch deck that then you can use to help land the job. And after you land the job, it will include everything from continued coaching and mentorship to help you succeed in these firms. And their goal is to, frankly, get more women and more underrepresented minorities into these three fields. What do you think their chances are of success?

 

[00:12:05.140] – Caroline

Well, I think it’s a very worthy endeavor. As you say, it’s a very male dominated and not incredibly diverse industry from ethnic perspective. And firms have been aware of this for some time, but I think they feel more pressure now to take action to change that. I’m sure that the school has recognized that there’s an opportunity to bring a pipeline through because there will be recruiting opportunities. The firms are looking to recruit a more diverse workforce, but as we’ve said, they’re often recruiting people from a very specific background and even coming from the same industry. And so if that pipeline isn’t there to start with, then it’s very difficult to change. You really have to start from the very beginning. And so I think it’s a very interesting idea and a very smart move by Darden and to also build relationships with recruiters who might otherwise not be recruiting so much at Darden. Perhaps they would be recruiting otherwise at seven schools, but with this program, it might give an opportunity to the school to attract recruiters who might not otherwise be coming to the school.

 

[00:13:20.490] – John

Yeah, that’s really true, because I rattled off those figures at Harvard, Stanford and Wharton. At Darden, according to their stats, roughly 2.4% of the class goes into private equity and venture capital. They say they have a record number right now of placement in DC and PE internships and full time jobs. 21 members of the full time MBA class of 22 are completing summer internships, and seven of their graduates in 2021 accepted full time roles in those fields. But clearly that’s far and away pretty small compared to Harvard, Stanford and Wharton. But so this is a real effort to make this a much more substantial part of placement and career development at Darten and to do it through the lens of diversity and inclusion. It’s kind of an interesting way to go about it. Maria, what do you think about this?

 

[00:14:24.010] – Maria

Look, it’s great that they’re doing it. The more diversity and inclusion we get, especially in fields where women and people of color have traditionally been shut out, the better. I certainly don’t think it’ll hurt at all for this program to exist. I do think it’s a little funny. I think if anything, I don’t know that they should be getting full scholarships. I think if anything.

 

[00:14:42.170] – John

They should be paying extra for because they’re going to leave jobs that are going to make them a fortune.

 

[00:14:47.950] – Maria

Yeah, they’re going to make a lot of money. I think one of the most important things they can offer is, in fact, that sort of apprenticeship, mentorship aspect, because I know venture capital in particular is an apprenticeship. It’s primarily an apprenticeship model. There are programs that have been out there for years. One of them is called the Kaufman Fellows Program, and I know because I was a Kaufman Fellow where they’re trying to bring like, women and minorities more into VC. But basically their pitch is like that they select people. It’s essays and interviews and like two days of interviews and all this stuff, and then they are basically giving the VC firms the stamp of approval, and they’re saying, okay, you don’t need to worry about training these green new venture capitalists. We will train them for you. That’s what we at the Kaufman Fellows Program do. So I wonder if Darden is at least on the venture side, copying, taking inspiration from what the Coffin Fellows have been doing have been doing all along. And I think so far it’s been a pretty successful program overall. So the more the merrier. And even if you train someone to become a venture capitalist and let’s say they don’t get that job right away, they might get it in 15 years.

 

[00:15:56.630] – Maria

Right. So I think that there’s certainly no downside to this.

 

[00:16:01.910] – John

Yeah. And it’s interesting because they’re not destroying money at this. And Incidentally, all the scholarships are merit based. It’s not need based, but they’re devoting themselves to a new suite of elective courses, the networking and mentoring from current industry professionals, access to career programs and leadership experiences with these VC and private equity firms through internships and Fellows programs, and then the independent study as well, that would be overseen by Darden faculty member as well as the sponsor, the company sponsor. So it’s really a pretty comprehensive program to put more people who aren’t there into this industry, and we’ll see how it goes. I think it’s a fascinating experiment, and particularly because it’s at a public University that is not in the M seven. And we do know, as we said before, these firms tend to love candidates from the really truly elite, highly selective schools out there with elite backgrounds, no less. It’s not only should you be going to Harvard, Wharton and Stanford, your undergrad probably needs to be stamped at Princeton, Yale, Harvard, Stanford, etc. E to actually get into these firms. But I do think this is the right time. People are under a lot of pressure to diversify the people that they bring in, particularly in this field, where really it’s white, male dominated over and over and over, and it has been for many, many, many years.

 

[00:17:35.780] – John

This could be a really nice opening and could result in some meaningful gains for a lot of people. The other thing we wanted to talk about or recommendation letters, and we’re interested because we just found out that another major school, we can’t tell you who it is, but it’s a big and important school in the game, and they’re going to go with a one letter recommendation policy, joining Columbia and MIT, which already require only one letter. What do we think of this? Is this good? What does it say about the difficulty of getting recommendation letters that are honest and Truthful and useful to admissions? Caroline, what do you think?

 

[00:18:20.450] – Caroline

It is very interesting, I think that maybe there’s a number of factors playing into this. The US scores in particular over the past, I would say ten years or so have whittled down the elements of the application, and so they’ve tried to streamline it a bit to make it easier for people to apply. And I think this may be part of that effort, just one less hurdle for people to overcome to apply. I am sure there is also an element of they are tired of reading recommendations that are clearly written by the candidate themselves, and that is definitely happening more and more. I mean, I’ve seen it over the past few years. Increasingly. It’s definitely a trend of candidates being asked by the recommenders to just ride it themselves. That happens much more frequently now than it did even five years ago and go back 1020 years think it was a very different situation. I think the schools are fed up of reading something that is clearly not entirely authentic, and perhaps there is overlap as well between the recommendations. From an NCR perspective where I work, I think it would be difficult to go down to one recommendation because the average work experience at NCAA for MBA students is about five and a half years.

 

[00:19:47.310] – Caroline

Right. Most of them have had more than one job and they may have had quite different work experience across two different positions or they’ve been promoted. There’s quite a bit of breadth there, and it can be difficult to get to full perspective on that from one recommender. So I think it may also be that the schools are looking to appeal to the younger candidates and make it easier for the younger candidates to apply. And if you’re only sort of one or two years into your career, it could be difficult to come up with a second recommendation. Right. I mean, the ideal recommender is your current supervisor. That’s the sweet spot. Right. And if you’re one or two years into your career, you’ve got your current supervisor. You may not have a former supervisor that you could go to former boss. And so then who do you ask? Do you ask your boss’s boss? Do you ask somebody who’s worked with you, but they’ve never supervised you? So I think there’s also an element of appealing to the younger candidates who write early in their careers and making it easier for them to apply.

 

[00:20:54.730] – John

Years ago, actually, it was in 2013, we wrote a story on how many applicants actually write their own recommendation letters. It was based on a survey put out by a Gap, which is the trade association for Admission consultants. And the survey was of applicants in that given year, and it found that 38% of applicants wrote their own recommendation letters. But the admission consultants back then believe the number was much higher, with as many as six of ten letters actually being written by NBA candidates. If you had to guess what percentage of recommendation letters today are actually written by applicants, what would your guess be?

 

[00:21:36.770] – Caroline

My God. Well, certainly the majority. I mean, there’s also degrees of writing it. Right. Have they written the entire thing themselves and the recommended just copy pasted, or have they worked on it together? Have they given them some bullet points? So there’s a Gray area there. I think it’s good for candidates to discuss the recommendation and even give them some bullet points and give them some input because you want to make sure that they know what is expected of them, because as admissions director, I did read recommendations where literally the response to each question was one or two lines, and that was not very helpful, and it didn’t add any value to the candidacy. So you do want to make sure that the recommended knows what is expected, and they’ve got some talking points that fit with what you’re saying about yourself. Right. And they’re highlighting strengths that are complimentary. But yeah, it’s a shame if people then go down the road of fully writing the whole thing themselves. I dread to think, frankly, what the percentage is. What do you think, Maria?

 

[00:22:46.030] – Maria

Yeah, I think, like you said, there’s providing guidance to your recommender, which I actually think I actually encourage people to do, only not because it’s cheating, but just because oftentimes recommenders might not know what is a business school even looking for with the best of intentions, focus on a task that you completed that is very impressive to the boss, but has no impressiveness at all for an admissions committee. So I do advise that people sit down with the recommender, either literally or perhaps Siberia over email. And so they’re like, look, I’d really love for you to focus on this story and that story, and then that way you can also avoid that overlap. Right. If you’ve got two recommenders, both talking about that same project, what a wasted opportunity. I would think in terms of people who do that, I would think it’s in the 80%. In terms of people who write it themselves. Yeah, probably around 50. If you could hook people up to a lie detector test, I think it would be at least 50%. I do think that it’s so easy, though, to tell, especially for certain people for whom writing does not come naturally.

 

[00:23:53.170] – Maria

They don’t realize how obvious it is that they have written their own recommendation. But people, they have voices when they write, they use certain terms of phrase, terms of phrase. They use certain expressions or certain figures of speech. And if that same figure of speech is in your essay, and then I see it on the next page on your letter recommendation, I’m pretty sure that you wrote your own recommendations, and yet I don’t see that. It’s interesting.

 

[00:24:13.230] 

Right.

 

[00:24:13.400] – Maria

Because the schools, they protest and we don’t want this at all. They protest, and yet I don’t necessarily see them punishing. It’s almost like theatrical for me.

 

[00:24:27.860] – John

Here’s the other thing. I wonder if by requiring only one letter of recommendation, is it more likely that they will be Truthful, in other words, that the actual recommender will do it? Does it increase the odds instead of requiring more than one, is there a greater temptation for the applicant to just do it when the recommender says, hey, can you just draft something for me? What do you think, Caroline?

 

[00:24:55.970] – Caroline

Well, it could go either way. I mean, if you’re looking at some of the firms where they’re sending a lot of people to business school, and so some of the managers and partners are solicited frequently for recommendations, it’s going to reduce their workload. Right. So a lot of these people are frequently writing recommendations, and so if the schools switch from two to one, theoretically it could have their workload and perhaps I’ll pay more attention to it and put more individual effort in. So that could be the positive side of this.

 

[00:25:30.230] – John

Interesting thing is in Colombia’s case, for example, they’re actually telling you who they want the recommendation letter from, and they’re basically saying it should ideally be from your current supervisor. And if for any reason you can’t get one from that person, they’re asking you to submit a statement of explanation as to why you can’t. So if you’re going to recommend one, I think you have to be more stringent about who you accept two, right, Caroline?

 

[00:25:56.340] – Caroline

Yes. And the current supervisor is always the ideal recommendation. In any case, I often speak to candidates who are concerned about asking their boss for recommendation because then they’re signaling that they’re going to leave. But in general, that conversation in most cases goes very well. And it’s much better for you to get that currency provider because the schools want to understand how you’re performing now, what impact you’re having now. And probably as time has gone on, you’ve taken on bigger projects and got more responsibilities. So you’ll probably have a more impressive recommendation from someone who’s supervising you now than from someone who supervised you a couple of years ago.

 

[00:26:42.450] – John

Do we think there are going to be more schools to do this? Obviously, we know of one that will, and we have Columbia and MIT, which two big members of the M Seven, which one would think might send a signal to a lot of other schools that this is okay and it’s worthwhile. What do you mean?

 

[00:27:02.070] – Caroline

Yeah, I think it’s interesting with two M seven schools, that’s a big move, right. So I would imagine that others will probably follow suit.

 

[00:27:11.970] – John

Maria, what do you think?

 

[00:27:14.250] – Maria

Yeah, I think they will. It sounds like that second recommendation is not yielding a lot of value, and it certainly is a lot more work. I personally think it’s sort of a shame because I think most human beings out there can charm at least one senior person in their company. But to be able to charm and also manage. Right, because you have to manage your recommenders. And recommenders are, by definition, people to whom these are people who owe you nothing. These are people who normally senior to you or their clients or something like that. And so I do think that being able to get more than one recommendation is a positive sign of someone’s political finesse. But it sounds like the schools don’t feel that they’re getting a whole lot of value out of it. So why put everyone through the pain of getting a second recommendation and reading a second recommendation if it’s just creating busy work for everyone all around?

 

[00:28:05.380] – John

That’s true. But Caroline Maria raises a good point there. It does require more finesse and more skill to get two recommenders as opposed to just one. And that may tell you something about the candidate in and of itself.

 

[00:28:18.770] – Maria

I have to get three recommendations. When I applied, I needed three. I was sweating bullets on that third one. I was like, what am I going to ask? So I don’t know. I think it has value as an exercise for the candidate just to show that they have three people, two or three people willing to go to bat for them.

 

[00:28:35.950] – John

But oh, well, the other interesting thing about this, I think there is a problem that Caroline mentioned. There are a lot of NBA candidates who don’t tell their bosses that they are going to an MBA program, and after all, you apply to a certain set of programs and you don’t know for sure that you’re going to get in. And frankly, the odds are against you to begin with, given how selective they are at the top end and you don’t want to signal to them. And in this case, you kind of have to you have to tell your direct supervisor to get the best recommendation letter for your application or multiple recommendation letters. So you’re kind of put in this very difficult place as well.

 

[00:29:20.180] – Caroline

Yes, that’s true, but it’s something that candidates often get very concerned about and honestly recommenders understand that you are probably going to have a career in the long term that is not going to revolve around that one person working for your current boss. And ultimately, you’re probably going to go on to do something differently. And hopefully they want the best thing for you as an individual and happy to support you in pursuing your longer term goals. So it’s very rare that a boss is not supportive of this. It does happen, but it is rare. They normally are able to find in the depths of their hearts and generosity of spirit towards their staff and support them in their goals. And also, people understand that you’re putting yourself through a competitive process and it might not work out And I don’t think people should be embarrassed about it if they don’t get in. It happens all the time. Great. People get rejected from the top schools every year and it’s nothing to be embarrassed about.

 

[00:30:32.490] – John

The other thing about one recommendation letter, though, is you put all your marbles on one person While generally you should have the kind of relationship with your recommender to really know that you’re going to get a very positive recommendation from them. It’s surprising to me how many recommenders say things that hurt candidates and I say this as an outsider who has had the privilege of sitting in admissions committee meetings at three different schools over the past years and having someone at those committee meetings read a recommendation letter that’s shockingly damaging to a candidate. So if you only have one recommender and they say something that’s even just slightly damaging Would it completely knock you out? Or if you had two or three that one slightly damaging comment might be in the context of two overflowing with praise recommendation letters that would therefore offset whatever slight handicap you’ve been given.

 

[00:31:41.110] – Caroline

What do you think it’s like having one interview versus two?

 

[00:31:44.790] 

Right?

 

[00:31:45.100] – Caroline

It’s more pressure for that one event to go well, yes, it’s going to mean that that individual recommendation Is going to carry more weight to the process and you’re right, there is more risk involved.

 

[00:31:58.090] – John

Well, there you have it. So we have Columbia, we have MIT, we have another third school about to announce that it’s going to one recommendation letter policy for applicants. You’ll find out soon enough. As soon as they announce it, we can say it, right?

 

[00:32:12.290] – Caroline

Absolutely.

 

[00:32:13.390] – John

Good. Okay. Well, there you have it. Thanks for listening to Business Casual. If you want a job at PE, VC or hedge funds make sure you have a good recommender. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants.

 

Business School News | General | P&Q Podcast "Business Casual"
Landing The Most Lucrative MBA Jobs In PE, VC & Hedge Funds
Maria |
July 13, 2021

Full Episode Transcript:

John Byrne: [00:00:00] Hello everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Welcome to Business Casual, our weekly podcast. We want to talk about international students. Schools are now reporting that a good number of their international recruits who were admitted to programs this fall haven’t been able to show up or have changed their mind.

At the University of Illinois, the school, the Gies College of Businesses, lost about 200 international students in its Master of Finance and Master of Business Analytics programs causing a $7 million hit. To their budget at UC Davis Graduate School of Management, 40 students didn’t show up who were admitted, and that’s resulting in two and a half to $3 million hit on their budget this year.

Both of these things have occurred before the announcement of a hundred thousand dollars tax on H one B Visa. Which will make it more difficult for many employers [00:01:00] to hire international students and keep them in the US for an extended period of time. And we’re getting the new class reports of the, of the new cohorts of students who’ve arrived on campus in the fall of this year.

And Carnegie Mellon is. Down 30% for their international cohort over the past two years. UCLA Anderson School is down 25% over the past two years, and schools are preparing for the worst because of the H one B Visa decision which could affect future employment. Caroline and Maria, my cohosts are in the market helping people get into the best schools in the world.

And Caroline, what do you think?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yeah, definitely seeing concern among international candidates and people holding off on applying for the US schools. So it’s really a shame. I think the international schools, particularly the schools like Inea and London Business School and the other top.[00:02:00]

International European programs will benefit, they’ll get talent that might otherwise have come to the us, which is great for those schools. And I’m very fond of those schools, but it is sad as from the US perspective for sure. On the other hand, you could also take the perspective that.

If you do have options for your career post MBA that don’t require that you absolutely have to stay in the US as an international candidate, then now could be a very good time to apply, right? Because definitely application volume will be down and schools will be perhaps. More open to candidates that might otherwise have been waitlisted or rejected in the past.

For some candidates, this is actually a fantastic opportunity to get into a top school, but from, for, at least from the school’s perspective, it is a shame because, I’ve experienced firsthand the value of a very internationally diverse classroom and the value that brings with a [00:03:00] diversity of perspectives that enriches the learning experience so much for everybody.

Enriches the debate and bring so much to the academic experience as well as the the network and the social experience. So it’s everybody’s loss, right?

John Byrne: Very true.

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: And I think it’s a very myopic perspective that the US government takes that. There needs to be a more of a refocus at US educational institutions on the domestic market because those international applicants bring a lot to the domestic students in enriching their learning and enriching their network.

Of course bring a huge value to the US economy when they stay. So there are very impressive statistics on the value of immigrants to the US economy. So Indian immigrants, for example, are only about one and a half percent of the US population, but they have founded to date about 8% of all the tech startups in the us.[00:04:00]

And for sure some of that top talent from India will now not come to the us. They will go to perhaps they will stay at the great schools that we’ve talked about in India, or they will go to other international schools. So for sure it will be a loss to the us learning experience and to the US economy.

John Byrne: Maria, you run applicant lab which is a platform that helps applicants get into highly selective schools. And many of the people who use your product are international students. What are you seeing?

Maria Wich-Vila: Everything Caroline is saying concern is think a delicate way to put it.

And I think it’s because as the more affordable provider in the market, I tend to get the applicants who maybe they don’t have the family business to fall back on. Maybe they don’t have, large sources of income elsewhere in their lives. And so I think the concern is very real and very merited, right?

I can’t. In good faith, tell someone, if they [00:05:00] really start, sit down and do the math and start to do, run the numbers, if they just assume that things are going to stay as is. And this is the big caveat that I’m, I want to get to in a second, but if we assume that things stay as is and if someone really is from a lower income tier from Nepal or India or some of the other countries that I work with, yeah, maybe sit down and do that math and think about, okay, if I do have to come back to Nepal afterwards, how will I pay back that loan? There, there is though some good news. Even if we assume that things stay status quo, which I hope, and I’m pretty, I’m I think it’s, I’m cautiously optimistic that they won’t.

But there are other markets as well. So I’ve had a lot of candidates, or former clients, I should say, graduate from business school, not be able to get jobs in certain in countries and then. Being able to move to Dubai. Dubai for some reason, has started attracting a ton of candidates, primarily from South Asia but from other parts of the world who might be having trouble getting some of those work permits.

You could do worse than live in, Dubai’s not perfect, but [00:06:00] you could also do worse than live in Dubai, right? The salaries are pretty high. The standard of living, if you have a white collar job there is, it’s not the worst outcome. So it’s not I can’t stay in the us. That’s it.

There’s no other it’s not a binary of, it’s either the US or it’s nothing. And then I think the second point is I, we’ve just seen. So many things, let’s take something from a different facet of policy. The tariffs, right? The tariffs were announced and the markets went crazy, and in the months that have followed, oh, actually, here’s the tariff, but this one company, their products aren’t gonna be subject to the tariff.

And then there’s this other company that maybe they’re not gonna have to pay the same tariff. And I can’t help but wonder if some of these. Some of these very large companies that are getting tariff exemptions, their ability to lobby for. The H one B, maybe lowering of the H one B fee. If they’ve been able to successfully lobby tariffs, they might be success, able to successfully lobby against these, true, these [00:07:00] visa fees.

And a lot of these big companies, these big tech companies are in fact some of the largest employers of post MBA talent in the us. So I am cautiously optimistic that. This could be, hopefully right now it’s the big, the flash and storm and the, the making, the big splash, right?

Everything’s about showmanship and making the big splash. And maybe in the aftermath of the storm, that initial PR media storm, maybe the reality will start to calm down a little bit. Yeah, the other good news is that if you’re applying now, that means you would enroll in 2026. You would, if it, if you’re talking about the US two year program, you would graduate in 2028.

At that point, who knows what might happen. I like to think that what we have seen so far in terms of the Visa policies, hopefully. Roughly the floor about as bad as it can get. I think if they start implementing a similar thing to OPT, that could be the same thing. But if we just assume that okay, right now what’s been announced is that these foreign students all have to do, you can’t stay here, you have to [00:08:00] go someplace else.

It, we assume that’s like the initial negotiating position. It’s just gonna chip, it’s just gonna get, it’s got nowhere else to go. It’s even worse. So we’ve, we now have two and a half years roughly until. People applying now would have to really implement, or be really affected by this in a.

In a pragmatic and tangible way. And so that’s why I’m hoping that the little chipping away and the chipping away things will start to get a little bit better and a little bit better and a little bit better like we’ve seen with other facets of policy. Didn’t like a bunch of the CDC employees that were all fired under Doge didn’t more than half of them I think were recently rehired.

Yes. Back again true. Whatever you think of the policy, it seems like some of the policies are. Being slowly walked back. And so I think if you. If you’ve got an adventurous spirit, I, and by the way, if you apply now, sorry. I know I keep going, but I like, if you apply now, let’s say you get accepted, you don’t have to show up until August of 2026.

So that will give you [00:09:00] time, like definitely. Apply now and see what happens between now and August of 2026 to make the decision to not apply now, because you’re rightfully scared. I’m not blaming anyone, but to not apply now, maybe by maybe six months from now he’ll be like, ha, just kidding. I’m doubling the number of H one Bs.

Yeah, we have no idea what’s gonna happen. So things are So give yourself that optionality.

John Byrne: Yeah. And things are so uncertain that could very well happen because, one day at tariffs are on one country the next day they’re not one day they’re pausing the ab the interviews for student visas, the.

Say they’re not there’s litigation all over the place, challenging many of the presidential actions that have been taken that have put them in limbo despite all the headlines. So it’s, it, there’s more uncertainty than there is certainty about any of these things. And as you point out, you, if you [00:10:00] did apply this year, the odds are gonna be in your favor if you’re an international student, frankly, because there is no question.

That international applicant volume will be down at all the top schools in the us, which means that to maintain some semblance of a global class. Admission directors are going to have to dig a little bit deeper into their international applicant pools to select candidates. In a way, if you play the long term and in the BA, in, in many graduate degrees or long term bet, I think you’re gonna be.

Oddly better off. And it may even be that the schools will really even go out of their way to help international students in ways that they haven’t in the past because of these actions in Washington. And what do I mean by that? Just a more welcoming reception than the already welcoming reception you would get hiring immigration lawyers and people that can help you.

If in fact there is a [00:11:00] challenge of one kind or another. I think the takeaway is not to be discouraged and throw up your hands to say, ah, I always dreamed of coming to the United States and getting an MBA or a graduate degree in business. Use this as an opportunity to actually increase your odds of getting into a better school with the understanding that when you get out there, probably most likely be an administration change and a change in these policies if they even get completely adopted as Maria points out.

Wouldn’t you think that’s the best strategy, Caroline?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yes, I agree. I think that it’s good to take a longer term perspective because it is such a long timeline, right? If you’re applying to a top two year program as you say, you’re gonna be coming out of the program at the end of the Trump presidency and things may look very different.

And Maria rightly points out that. Everything is very volatile, right? So one thing gets announced and the next week it [00:12:00] gets rolled back, right? They’ve done so many things where they’ve realized, oh, actually that was a really bad idea after all. So

They’ve changed things. So things may not it might, may not turn out to be as bad as we fear.

And then I would also encourage candidates. To apply to the US schools, but why not hedge your bets and apply to an international program as well? Agreed in a time of uncertainty. As Maria said, create options for yourself. And so I would encourage candidates to apply to the top US programs, but also apply to top international programs as well and see what offers you get.

And then you can make a decision. As Maria said, it will be closer to the time when you would be starting the program and there may be more clarity about the situation in the US and what your options are in international markets as well. So I think that given the current circumstances, a good strategy is to hedge your bets and apply more widely than you might [00:13:00] have otherwise done.

John Byrne: Plan Bs are good. Let me just say business schools in the US have for years advised international students that those should have a plan B in the event that they can’t get with a US company. The other thing to, to keep in mind incidentally, in terms of MBA employment is that most of the companies.

That basically employ the lion’s share of MBAs are all global concerns. So you can be hired here and if there’s any challenge in getting you employed here in the us you can simply start in an office outside the United States with a hope of coming back when things clear up. So that is also another important thing to keep in mind.

And I’ll just say this. Despite whatever messaging you’re reading in your local newspapers or on your streaming platforms or television stations about how immigrants may not be welcome in the us that’s not true at all. Universities are diverse places. Welcoming. [00:14:00] Embracing loving the diversity of their students and particularly those from different cultures and backgrounds that enrich the educational experience.

There is no Dean that I’ve ever encountered who said they want fewer international students. It’s the exact opposite. They’re putting out message after message, telling people that they’re still welcome and wanted. Needed in the classroom. Now, Maria, in the past we’ve seen applicants who try to say, okay, can I time my application and my enrollment in a program to what I think might be the next recession?

And we know that in recessions applications go way. In part because some people lose the opportunity to gain advancement in a recession. Some people get unemployed. Some people just realize, hey, a recession is a good time to take a time out and get a new educational credential, which may allow me to do things I otherwise can’t do.[00:15:00]

But it’s almost impossible to time a recession and I’m imagining it’s impossible to time what’s going on here now.

Maria Wich-Vila: Yeah. I mean if we could all time, when everyone’s been talking about a stock market crash that to, not to bring another disparate topic in, but like everyone’s been talking about, it’s a bubble.

It’s a bubble. I’ve been hearing ’cause a bubble for a year and a half. True. Yeah, you can’t time or ask, for example, ask the people who enrolled in business school, like who got into business school in 2020. Like there’s always gonna be these external shocks. We can try to predict a recession, but who knows if it’s going to happen?

Who knows if there’s going to be some sort of virus or the opposite of a virus. Maybe there’ll be a virus that helps us all live healthily forever. Who knows? There’s so much uncertainty out there that who knows what to do. So I think. I think yeah, have that optionality. I think go ahead and apply.

Now if there is a recession though, which everyone seems to think is coming at some point, at that point, it’s going to be harder to get accepted. And as Caroline has pointed out, so rightfully, if other international, high quality international students are [00:16:00] spooked by the current H one B talk, now is your chance.

International candidate. Jump in there, shoot your shot like you might be able to get into a school, assuming of course that you’re qualified, but. You might have a lot less competition now than you normally will, so this could be a golden opportunity for you. And one final as one thing that I wanted to point out was that I was thinking, okay, Maria, let’s say that, you just said that maybe there’s gonna be walk back of some of these and there’s gonna be, maybe he’s gonna change.

But even if there isn’t a change, right? Let’s think about this. The companies themselves are gonna have, and you started to alluded to this John, when you mentioned that a lot of them are global concerns. They’re gonna have now a two year window in which to say. Okay. We know that we’re not gonna keep these people in the states, so let’s open a huge office in Vancouver.

Let’s open a brand, an enormous new office in Toronto. Whatever that is. Because I was thinking back to over the summer when it looked like maybe a bunch of international students wouldn’t be able to get any student visa at all. And I know that some of the business schools we’re looking [00:17:00] at, do we rent out some space in Toronto and do Zoom classes?

We do a hybrid. What we did during COVID. I’ve heard that. I think Rice, I was actually having dinner last night with a dear friend who was, say he’s from Texas and he was saying that Rice has some sort of a campus in Paris and that they are leaning really heavily on their global campuses around the world to still be able to service these students who had gotten accepted.

So things like that, like if. Even if our sort of my very cautious and perhaps irrational optimism turns out to not be true, let’s say the things get, the OPT is banished and all, everyone is banished and it’s the worst case scenario. Again, there’s gonna be two and a half years for these companies. To quickly find, okay, fine, we’re gonna open up an office in Mexico City and we’re gonna pay people really well and we’re gonna what?

Whatever that is. ’cause they’re, the companies are still gonna want the talent, right? Just because the political administration doesn’t want the global talent in the country. That doesn’t mean that the country’s employers don’t want that talent. They [00:18:00] want that talent, they want that intellect, they want that energy and that drive to make their companies better and to make more money.

So they have a very strong incentive to not only be lobbying for these. Visa changes to go away, but if they don’t go away, they have a very strong incentive to come up with some way to provide, to provide those incomes and to provide those perks and some sort of a compromise type of situation.

So again I think if you’re applying now, if you’re going in with eyes wide open, shoot your shot. That’s my, I would absolutely tell people to to try that.

John Byrne: Yeah, I totally agree. And, generally this is my rule of thumb and Maria and Caroline, you may or may not agree with this, at the top MBA programs, they’re so selective that the people who apply to them generally are very self-selecting group.

So I always say that roughly 80% of the school’s applicant pool. Is qualified to actually get accepted, get in, do [00:19:00] well, and land a good job. And yet we know that at Stanford, the acceptance rate is 6%, that Harvard is 12 Wharton and Columbia is, a little under 20 or so. So there are a lot of really good candidates who aren’t getting in.

Which leads me to this, if you’re an international student who thinks okay, so these US schools just might dip a little more into the domestic pool to make up for the offset of international candidates. As it turns out, there is a little notice. Clause in the big beautiful tax bill that was passed here under Trump that places severe limits on federal loans for graduate students.

Now, the current grad plus loan program allows students to borrow up to the cost of their graduate programs. That comes to an end in July of next year. After that, grad students borrowing will literally be capped at [00:20:00] 20,500 bucks a year with a lifetime graduate school loan limit of a hundred thousand. That’s a big deal because, at the top MBA programs it’s not on typical.

For a student to borrow over a hundred thousand dollars easily. And so these caps are also going to affect domestic enrollment. So again, that, that contributes to your ability as an international candidate to get in both. The likely decline in competition not only from internationals but also from domestic students here, interestingly enough, that Bill, which passed has different limits for a professional graduate degree, but the bill basically says that only med school and law school qualify as professional degrees and not business school.

That’s another wacky thing that’s happened that will affect. Domestic enrollment as well. So I, I side with Maria and [00:21:00] Caroline to me the advice is, look long term. Don’t be affected overly affected by the change in policies in the US or the climate here. Understand that if you apply now and you matriculate next year and you graduate in two years after that you’re gonna be facing probably a very different environment.

Also understand the odds are in your in your favor, in getting into a highly selective, really good program in this coming year. And know that, while people too often calculate the value of an MBA based on short term variables, like what’s my starting salary gonna be? What is my sign-on bonus?

The truth is the MBA has enduring value over your lifetime. So it rewards you over your entire career and not just for the first or second years. And you can’t go wrong by graduating into a network of helpful and supportive people from a great school and [00:22:00] receiving a great education. So I think bottom line, we’re telling you apply.

Don’t get convinced by your colleagues or anyone else that this is a bad time to come to the us. Opportunity. Some of the best opportunity come comes when people perceive there to be significant challenges. And I think this is really true with business school. We hope we convinced you to come and try and hedge your batts too, as Caroline noted.

I think that’s really super important to have a plan B when you apply and toss a bunch of apps to the European schools which have excellent superb world class MBA programs and real international cohorts. 90% of the students not from the countries where the schools reside. Toss a bunch of them in your mix for your target schools to give you these different options at the end of the day.

This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Thanks for listening.

Maria

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