Who Gets An Admit In The Final Round?
Maria |
February 29, 2024

In the latest episode of Business Casual, the hosts tackle the topic of final round MBA admissions. They explore the nuances and potential outcomes for individuals applying later in the admissions cycle, offering a comprehensive overview of how various business schools perceive these late applications.

The conversation also highlights the critical importance of presenting a thoroughly prepared application, regardless of the submission deadline. The hosts emphasize the necessity for candidates to articulate their reasons for applying later and provide practical advice for those contemplating a last-minute application.

This episode helps listeners gain an understanding of the strategic aspects to consider when submitting an application in the final rounds, including insights into the differing approaches of top U.S. and European MBA programs.

Episode Transcript

[00:00:07.210] – John

Well, hello, everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Welcome to Business Casual, our weekly podcast with my co hosts, Maria Wich-Vila and Caroline Diarte Edwards. Caroline, of course, is the former admissions head at INSEAD and the co founder of Fortuna Admissions. And Maria is the founder of Applicant Lab. Now, let’s say you missed round one and round two. And you’re wondering, what are my odds if I apply to the final round of a school’s admissions deadlines? Well, we want to give you a little advice. We want to tell you who gets accepted in the final round, who doesn’t, and how viable is that? Know you always hear from folks like Caroline and Maria. Apply early, put your best foot forward as quickly as you can. Of course, that also assumes that you can file the best possible application during round one or round two. But obviously, when you’re applying to round one, all the seats are open. When you apply to round two, most of the seats are open. When you apply round three, there are far fewer classroom seats available to you. Caroline, what are sort of the guidelines of applying in a final round or one of the final rounds in the event that a school has more than three rounds?

[00:01:33.030] – Caroline

So this discussion came up because my colleague Emma Bond was chatting with David Simpson, who’s the head of admissions at London Business School, and he was talking about how they see a misconception, particularly in the US market, that it’s too late to apply to London Business School in round three. And so we decided to do this session to address what are the differences, which schools would encourage applications in the final round and which schools and in which cases. May it be better to then wait until the following season? So for London Business School and for INSEAD, both schools are very encouraging of candidates to apply in the final round. When I worked at INSEAD, one of the things that we implemented was a system to do our best to forecast the volume of applications that would come in round by round. And INSEAD has four rounds and of course, two intakes per year, so eight rounds over the full year. And we allocated spots accordingly to try to keep the level of competition as consistent as possible over those rounds, because I didn’t want to be turning away people in the final round who were fantastic and who I would have admitted in the first round.

[00:02:51.790] – Caroline

Right, so you can rest assured, if you’re applying to those schools, that you have a strong chance if you do apply in the later round. Now, the picture is very different at the M7 schools. So my colleague Judith Hadara, who’d been head of admissions at Wharton, was talking about her experience at Wharton and how it plays out at the M7 schools. So there are far fewer places in round three. And so the US schools are. Those top us schools do encourage candidates to apply in round one and round two where possible, particularly the traditional feeder profiles into business schools. So candidates applying from finance, from consulting, from tech, are best advised to apply in round one or round two. She also talked about the fact that sometimes those candidates think, I have to get in round one. Round two is too late. No, that it’s fine, right. There is no difference between round one and round two. You don’t have to submit your application in round one. But for those candidates, round one and round two are the best options. But she did say that they would still get some great candidates in round three and they would keep some spots for those people because they expected that every year.

[00:04:06.860] – Caroline

But it was really a case of cherry picking specific profiles to build out the diversity of the class. All three panelists talked about how it was not uncommon to see entrepreneurs applying in the final round. Not quite sure why that is. Maybe their circumstances change and for whatever reason, they are looking to jump into business school. Perhaps it’s not such a long term plan that they formed. Like someone who’s working, consulting and has probably known for two or three years that they’re going to apply to business school. For entrepreneurs, circumstances can change much more quickly. And so the M7 schools, they do keep slots for candidates like that who have a really unusual, outstanding profile. But otherwise, particularly for those very top schools, if you don’t fall into that category, then you are probably best off waiting to round one.

[00:05:04.450] – John

My assumption has always been that round three, there is an additional criteria that admissions officials consider that is less relevant in round one and round two, and that is the crafting of the class. So you’re looking at where there are holes in your diversity, whether it’s geographic location, whether it’s industry background, could even be a more traditional diversity criteria. And you’re plugging those holes so that the crafting of the class becomes far more important in round three than it does in one and two when you’re just simply picking the best of the candidates in the pool. Maria, you agree with that?

[00:05:46.670] – Maria

I do. And I think that in round three, some other similar logistical types of factors may come into play. I only say this as someone, I can only speak anecdotally based on people who I see who have success getting in in round three. But I wonder if also part of the thing that comes into the equation is thinking about, like, okay, well, we’re already in April or May by the time these final round decisions come out. And if pre coursework types of activities start in, say, August, that only gives us a few months for someone to assemble any sort of work or study visa that they might need, assembling financing, moving to another part of the country. So I sometimes wonder also if part of it, in addition to trying to fill out the class from a diversity perspective, if it might be easier for me. I mean, it would be heartbreaking for all parties involved if a really fantastic candidate were to apply in round three, and only due to the time constraints, were then unable to enroll a few months later. That would be a big waste of everyone’s time and just lead to a lot of unnecessary heartbreak.

[00:06:49.500] – Maria

So I also think that there may be an element, perhaps, of if you do know that you are going to need either time to get a study visa or time to assemble your financing, I think you also might want to try to avoid round three. I can’t speak know. Obviously, Caroline would know better than I whether or not that actually impacts who gets in in round three. But it could just be a coincidence on my part, but it makes sense. It could just be my brain trying to make sense of otherwise random bits of data. But that’s just something I’ve anecdotally noticed.

[00:07:19.090] – John

And Caroline, I think you mentioned in our pre call that David Simpson at LBS said they get more domestic candidates in their final round. And that makes sense, because if you are an international student, you need a visa, you need a little more time. The other thing to consider, I imagine, is if you want a scholarship, if you want a discount on the tuition, you should be applying early. Round three, there’s going to be less money available, if there’s any money left at all. And round three is going to be really hard for an international applicant to actually move abroad and find a place and get the required visa to study in the country. Right?

[00:07:59.440] – Maria

Yeah.

[00:07:59.770] – Caroline

So both Vijay and David talked about how they do keep scholarship funds for the final round, but it may be that there are more restrictions in that round, particularly for INSEAD, where they have some specific scholarships that are dedicated to round one and round two. And those are not available in round three, but they do keep some funds available because they know that they will get some good candidates who need some support at that stage. Another thing they talked about is that, as you say, there are candidates who apply in the final round and then realize, oh, my goodness, there’s so much to organize, right. I’ve got to move countries, figure out my family, figure out funding, figure out somewhere to live, and hadn’t anticipated all of that. And sometimes those candidates will then ask for a deferral. And David talked about how, in fact, sometimes they think some candidates apply in the final round, thinking that, well, I’m ready to apply now. I’m going to submit. If I get in, I’ll ask for a deferral, because I’m actually not ready to go now. And it’s not going to be too much of a scramble to get my act together to be on campus in the fall.

[00:09:07.390] – Caroline

And they talked about how that’s a really bad strategy because schools don’t like giving deferrals. It messes up their class composition to have people asking deferrals. Lots of people do ask deferrals for deferrals, but usually those requests are denied unless there is a very specific circumstance, like there’s a medical reason, or sometimes they may get a deferral because they’re not able to get a loan, but if they had a bit more time, they can demonstrate that they would be able to get their financing. But you have to have a very good reason. And most of the time, those deferral requests will be denied. So they flagged that as an issue that sometimes people are applying without having thought through probably the implications of when they would get admitted and when they would need to turn up on campus.

[00:10:00.450] – John

The other thing here is, I wonder if there’s like a hidden booby trap in applying late, and that is admissions directors may feel, well, look, you’re one of these people who delay everything, procrastinate to the last moment, and then you try to get something done and you cram it, as opposed to someone who’s very well prepared and thought out and is applying early. This goes to the old cliche, right? The early bird gets the worm. Is there some of that psychological disadvantage that a candidate may have in applying in a late round?

[00:10:42.830] – Caroline

Well, I would say that I think they see different types of candidates in the final round, and it is often a different mix to the candidates they see in rounds one and round two. So those candidates who are on that path where they know that they’re going to apply to a business school at some point if they turn up. So your management consultant, if you turn up in round three, you probably need to explain to the school why you’re applying in round three, because that’s quite unusual. So they see some fantastic, outstanding, unusual candidates in round three. And it may be that their circumstances have changed. And also, those people are not necessarily in the mindset of someone who is working at a McKinsey or a Goldman, where they’re surrounded by people who’ve been to business school and they’re well aware of the timeline and they’ve been thinking about it so far and ahead, that it’s just much easier for those people to get their applications in early than someone who comes from a more unusual background where they’re not surrounded by all of that support.

[00:11:52.160] – John

Yes, there’s irony here, isn’t there? Because if you’re working in investment banking or consulting, you’re in a real grind. I mean, you’re putting in 60 to 80 hours a week of work. And if anyone had an excuse to delay and wait, it would be those folks. And the nontraditional candidates, I would assume, would have more time. So automatically you might think, well, those are the people who have the time to apply around one, around two, and yet that’s not the case. So it’s kind of a contrarian view of who should apply when and why. Right?

[00:12:31.470] – Caroline

Yeah, I think it’s partly the level of competition, and you just have to anticipate that there’s going to be a lot of people applying from the investment banks or from consulting or from tech firms. And so you just have to start the process much earlier. And it’s true, it is very challenging for some candidates to do all of that work, but they just have to start earlier, anticipating that the final round may not be the best idea for them.

[00:12:57.290] – John

I know that Caroline and Maria are type a personalities, and I’m sure that neither actually applied in the final round. Maria, you were around one candidate, weren’t you?

[00:13:11.530] – Maria

I was around one candidate to one school. And then when I got into that school in round one, I thought, ooh, maybe I have a chance at a better school. And then I applied to another school. In round two, though, I will say I think I submitted. I think the application was due something like midnight Hong Kong time. I think I submitted it, like, at 11:58 p.m. And 20 seconds. It was one of those things where you could keep uploading or making little edits. And so I was ready, but I was like, oh, let me change. That’s why I tell people, do as I say, not as I do. I definitely learned from the near heart attack that I had at that moment. So that’s why I tell people to not wait until the last minute, but certainly not round three. I don’t think I would have bothered.

[00:13:49.330] – John

Into Harvard in round two?

[00:13:51.100] – Maria

Yes.

[00:13:51.840] – John

And where did you get into in round one that gave you the confidence. To apply to Harvard?

[00:13:56.400] – Maria

Another very good.

[00:13:58.570] – John

Oh, you don’t want to mention this school.

[00:14:02.010] – Maria

I don’t think that it’s relevant. It’s a very good school that is on par often with Harvard. So anyway, I will say, though, that going along the sort of like, okay, the overrepresented folks tend to apply in round one. I think if you are from an overrepresented group or most people, I tend to advise a lot of people, like, look, you might want to explain in the optional essay why it is that you’re applying in round three if the fact is that you were in the military and you had to go to a base or something and you were unable to apply, or perhaps you only recently found out about the MBA and you thought, oh, this is a really cool thing, maybe I should explore it. And then you yourself just didn’t simply realize, like, oh, wait, there’s this whole hierarchy of different rounds and there’s all this strategy behind it, and you go into it with very good faith and like, oh, cool, I still have time. That’s great. You might want to just sort of explain your background now. By the way, as a side note, make sure that your GMAT test history supports that.

[00:14:57.010] – Maria

Right? You don’t want to pretend that, oh, I’m in the military and I just found out about the MBA, but I’ve taken the GMAT four times already over the past two years, and that’ll sort of ruin, you know, back to the point of if you are from an overrepresented group and you’re applying in the round three, I think it does behoove you to at least realize that there’s going to be a question mark in the reader’s head. And I sort of tell people, whenever there’s a question mark, just address that question mark up front. If you think there’s going to be a question mark, there probably is. So you should probably address it up front. And maybe it’s that you just recently found out that your firm is going to sponsor you or you just recently found out some sort of piece of very relevant information. But I do think that most people, if they are from an overrepresented group, not only are most of the spots already taken in the first two rounds, but I think also there’s a lot of folks in your bucket that are also already on the waitlist. So you’re not simply competing for one of a few spaces that is left but you’re also realizing that other management consultants and other bankers and other tech people are already on that waitlist.

[00:15:56.710] – Maria

It just makes it so much harder. And sometimes I tell people, like, don’t think of it as being too late to apply this year. It’s that you’re super early to apply next year. Hooray. That’s a positive spin on its hazard.

[00:16:08.470] – John

Now, Caroline, you did apply to INSEAD round one, didn’t you?

[00:16:12.890] – Caroline

I think so. It was a long time ago. I can’t quite remember, but I think I did because I remember being admitted well ahead of the program. So it must have been either round one or round two out of the four rounds. But then I was a management consultant, right, and I was surrounded by people who’d been to business school, several of whom had been to INSEAD. So I decided very early on in my career that I really, really wanted to go to INSEAD. So. And I actually went after six years of work experience, because I worked in London as a management consultant for four years and then I worked in Paris for two years. So I had been thinking about it for about five years, I think, before I applied. So I had plenty of time to plan. But Maria is absolutely right. If you do apply in the final round, and especially if you come from more of those common profiles, then just explain, and that’s perfectly fine. If there’s ever anything that seems like something that they might want to ask you about, as Maria said, don’t sweep it under the carpet, just address it up front, because it’s just better to be transparent with the schools.

[00:17:25.050] – Caroline

And they also understand that people’s circumstances change and that’s perfectly fine. Sometimes people apply in the final round because they’ve been made redundant from their jobs. Right. And that happens. The economy goes through ups and downs. Younger people are often the first to be laid off. If there is a wave of layoffs, schools understand that it doesn’t count against you. There are always people heading to business school who applied right after being made redundant. So if you’ve been laid off, then that might be a reason to apply in round three as well. So the schools always have those candidates coming through, especially in economic downturn. So that’s a perfectly valid reason to be applying late as well.

[00:18:08.800] – John

Now, Maria mentioned the dreaded word in admissions waitlist, and I’m going to bring this up because obviously there’s no waitlist for round one, there is one for round two, but that’s a big round. Round three, when you’re getting. Now you’re facing not only the lack of seats that have been taken by round one and round two candidates. Now you’re thinking about, oh my goodness, these schools are holding a bunch of people in limbo for round three. So doesn’t that even more narrow your prospects or are they just safeties? And we know some schools carry fairly significant waitlist into the final rounds, right?

[00:18:56.010] – Caroline

Yeah, that is a good point. They will be comparing especially round three candidates with what they have on the waitlist. So that is your competition as well. But again, if you have a common profile, then there’s going to be more of those common profiles on the waitlist. So that will be your competition as well as your round four fellow candidates. But if you have a more unusual profile, then probably you don’t have as much competition from the waitlist. So it really depends on the profile that you have.

[00:19:29.830] – John

And isn’t it true that practice makes one better? So in other words, I could justify applying in a final round on the basis that, number one, it gives me practice for the next year and then I can be an early candidate. So all is not lost because you can always reapply. And I don’t think that’s really taken against you if you were rejected, particularly in a late round. Maria, do you buy that?

[00:19:56.270] – Maria

I agree that being a re applicant is not necessarily held against you, though I do know realize that as a re applicant, you may need to either answer a different set of essay questions or add an additional essay, the reapplicant essay, where you pretty much explain, like, okay, you just applied three months ago, six months ago. What’s new? What’s changed? Why are you back again? So I would not take it frivolously if someone is, especially if they’re younger in their career and there isn’t some sort of economic emergency or reason why they must enroll in the upcoming months. I do usually tell people that I would rather see you wait until round one and just submit one really strong round one application than to send in a half baked round three application and then three months later like, hey, it’s me, I’m back again. But now my career goals are a little bit better because I’m a little bit savvier about this whole thing and it’s a little too much to, I always try to tell people, like, look, even if you’re so young in your career that you’ve never been in a hiring position before, put yourself in the shoes of a hiring manager, right?

[00:21:00.390] – Maria

Like, what if someone in your group, you had an open job opening and you had a certain deadline and someone was really late and then they just applied to that and their resume was a mess and then they applied again a few months later. At a certain point you’d say, like, well, why did you waste my time the first time? So I think if you think you’ve got a solid application in round three and a good reason for why you didn’t apply, you know, but on the other hand, don’t just say like, whoop, I’m just going to throw in a round three Hail Mary with no real intent. I know I’m not going to get in, but why not just realize that then you would then have to explain your reasoning later on? I don’t think it’s held against you to be a reapplicant, but there is an actual change to your application strategy. You will have to write either a different essay or an extra essay later on, so just be cognizant of that extra layer of scrutiny that will be given later on.

[00:21:48.470] – John

Yeah, good point, good point. My goodness, there’s a lot to think about here, isn’t there?

[00:21:54.390] – Caroline

There is. And something else that came up is that Vijay mentioned an interesting point about the dynamics in the early round versus the final round. So she talked about how often round one candidates, they know that they’re applying to multiple schools, right? So it’s often those early birds who are applying to a laundry list of schools to see where they’re going to get in. And they may therefore be less loyal to any of those individual schools, whereas what they see in the final round is that often those candidates have not applied to so many schools. And so the good candidates in the final round are often more loyal than those round one candidates. So that’s something that the schools observe and that they appreciate about the strong candidates that they see coming through in that final round. But they also do mean. David talked about how there’s a polarization in the final round where you have some really strong candidates who are coming through. Maybe it’s the entrepreneurs, some really great. I mean, for LBS, some of the best domestic candidates come through in the final round, or just people for whom their circumstances have changed and round three is the right time for them.

[00:23:11.360] – Caroline

But they’re really dedicated to going to business school and they’ve put together a really strong application and they probably haven’t applied to many schools at that stage. So you have those candidates and then you have the candidates who applied to laundry list of schools in round one or round two didn’t get in and they’ve gone down their list and clearly they are not as well prepared, have probably submitted a rushed application, which is always a bad idea, as Maria said, and they just don’t have a deep understanding of what the school is about. And that comes across. Right. The schools want to be your number one choice, right. And they know that you may well be applying to other schools and you probably are, but you still need to put together a convincing argument in your application for why that school is the one that you love the most and that is your number one choice. And they do get a batch of final round candidates who do a very bad job at that. So it’s interesting that they see these sort of two cohorts in the final round, some really strong candidates and some very weak candidates, or not necessarily weak candidates, but just people who have done a bad job of putting together their application.

[00:24:20.530] – John

Is there ever a waitlist for the final round? In other words, admission says, wow, this person is terrific. This person is as good as any we saw and admitted earlier. But frankly, we don’t have any more room. Do I then tell the candidate, hey, look, we really like you. Unfortunately, the class is full, but if you apply in round one in the next year, you’re going to get preferential treatment, so therefore you’re effectively on a waitlist of sorts. Does that ever happen?

[00:24:53.390] – Caroline

Well, I would occasionally waitlist people when I was in it yet in round three, but it’s a much smaller number of people. Right. Because you know that you’re going to have fewer places, but with every round, you’re waiting to see who is going to accept the offer. And so if there are some borderline cases who are just as good as the people you’ve just admitted, and you know that you would love to accommodate them. If other people turn down the offer, then they may be waitlisted. But schools try not to waitlist many people in the final round because they know that they will have very few spaces left. And as for waitlisting to roll forward to a next class, that’s quite unusual at the top schools. I know that, for example, at INSEAD they did do that during the pandemic when there was this massive surge of applications, and it was also a time when a lot of the classes were virtual. Everything was disrupted. So then they did offer people places for a subsequent class, but that was quite an unusual time for many reasons. So normally the schools are not going to waitlist someone and say, okay, we’ll just roll your application forward to the next class.

[00:26:10.170] – Caroline

But it may be that you can get some feedback from the school on whether they would encourage you to apply so reapply in a subsequent class. So I would give people feedback on waitlisted candidates whether we thought that they should reapply or whether we thought they should not reapply, so that they have some clarity on whether they have a chance in a future class. But as Maria said, if you’re going to reapply, ideally you can show some evolution, and that can be difficult to show if you’ve applied in the final round and then you want to reapply in the next class in round one. Right. You will just have the space of a few months, so it’s difficult to show that you’ve come back as a new, improved candidate in just three or four months. So it’s better to wait. If you think that your chances are very slim in the final round, then you’re better off waiting for that round one rather than rushing to submit in the final round.

[00:27:14.250] – John

So let’s do a summation here in the form of do’s and don’ts. Clearly, if you work in investment banking, consulting, or in tech, the three big feeders to MBA programs, you should be applying early. If you’re more of a nontraditional candidate and have a decent reason for applying last, you should. And you should probably do the optional essay that explains why you’re applying then any other do’s or don’ts. Maria to end this with, I think.

[00:27:52.120] – Maria

Just be realistic about what the situation is going to be, what the odds are going to be, and what the ramifications are. If you are not accepted, then realizing that as a reapplicant, there might be some additional things that you might have to do. And therefore, if that does impact your strategy, you may want to wait.

[00:28:12.750] – John

Right? Another do is if you’re an international applicant, you’re better off applying early than later because of the visa issue. And even though schools may reserve some scholarship money for late candidates, the truth is most of the money is gone. If you really are expecting in need a discount on the tuition, you’re probably better off applying early as well. So there you have it. Right? I think that sums up everything that we’ve discussed. Of course, there are a lot of nuances to this and a lot of subtleties which have made this a really fascinating discussion. I think that if I were applying, I’d be a non traditional person, right? I’m a poet and a writer, so I can get away with applying late.

[00:28:58.590] – Caroline

There’s still time for you to get in in the fall.

[00:29:01.200] – John

John oh, there is some hope for.

[00:29:04.050] – Maria

All.

[00:29:07.950] – John

Right, for all of you listening, thanks for tuning in. And if you’re going to apply in a final round, do so with confidence. Make sure you’re putting your best foot forward and make sure you’re in the pocket and you’re not in the mainstream as an applicant because most of those positions are going to be taken. All right. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. You’ve been listening to Business Casual, our weekly podcast.

Business School News | General | P&Q Podcast "Business Casual"
Who Gets An Admit In The Final Round?
Maria |
February 29, 2024

Full Episode Transcript:

John Byrne: [00:00:00] Hello everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Welcome to Business Casual, our weekly podcast. We want to talk about international students. Schools are now reporting that a good number of their international recruits who were admitted to programs this fall haven’t been able to show up or have changed their mind.

At the University of Illinois, the school, the Gies College of Businesses, lost about 200 international students in its Master of Finance and Master of Business Analytics programs causing a $7 million hit. To their budget at UC Davis Graduate School of Management, 40 students didn’t show up who were admitted, and that’s resulting in two and a half to $3 million hit on their budget this year.

Both of these things have occurred before the announcement of a hundred thousand dollars tax on H one B Visa. Which will make it more difficult for many employers [00:01:00] to hire international students and keep them in the US for an extended period of time. And we’re getting the new class reports of the, of the new cohorts of students who’ve arrived on campus in the fall of this year.

And Carnegie Mellon is. Down 30% for their international cohort over the past two years. UCLA Anderson School is down 25% over the past two years, and schools are preparing for the worst because of the H one B Visa decision which could affect future employment. Caroline and Maria, my cohosts are in the market helping people get into the best schools in the world.

And Caroline, what do you think?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yeah, definitely seeing concern among international candidates and people holding off on applying for the US schools. So it’s really a shame. I think the international schools, particularly the schools like Inea and London Business School and the other top.[00:02:00]

International European programs will benefit, they’ll get talent that might otherwise have come to the us, which is great for those schools. And I’m very fond of those schools, but it is sad as from the US perspective for sure. On the other hand, you could also take the perspective that.

If you do have options for your career post MBA that don’t require that you absolutely have to stay in the US as an international candidate, then now could be a very good time to apply, right? Because definitely application volume will be down and schools will be perhaps. More open to candidates that might otherwise have been waitlisted or rejected in the past.

For some candidates, this is actually a fantastic opportunity to get into a top school, but from, for, at least from the school’s perspective, it is a shame because, I’ve experienced firsthand the value of a very internationally diverse classroom and the value that brings with a [00:03:00] diversity of perspectives that enriches the learning experience so much for everybody.

Enriches the debate and bring so much to the academic experience as well as the the network and the social experience. So it’s everybody’s loss, right?

John Byrne: Very true.

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: And I think it’s a very myopic perspective that the US government takes that. There needs to be a more of a refocus at US educational institutions on the domestic market because those international applicants bring a lot to the domestic students in enriching their learning and enriching their network.

Of course bring a huge value to the US economy when they stay. So there are very impressive statistics on the value of immigrants to the US economy. So Indian immigrants, for example, are only about one and a half percent of the US population, but they have founded to date about 8% of all the tech startups in the us.[00:04:00]

And for sure some of that top talent from India will now not come to the us. They will go to perhaps they will stay at the great schools that we’ve talked about in India, or they will go to other international schools. So for sure it will be a loss to the us learning experience and to the US economy.

John Byrne: Maria, you run applicant lab which is a platform that helps applicants get into highly selective schools. And many of the people who use your product are international students. What are you seeing?

Maria Wich-Vila: Everything Caroline is saying concern is think a delicate way to put it.

And I think it’s because as the more affordable provider in the market, I tend to get the applicants who maybe they don’t have the family business to fall back on. Maybe they don’t have, large sources of income elsewhere in their lives. And so I think the concern is very real and very merited, right?

I can’t. In good faith, tell someone, if they [00:05:00] really start, sit down and do the math and start to do, run the numbers, if they just assume that things are going to stay as is. And this is the big caveat that I’m, I want to get to in a second, but if we assume that things stay as is and if someone really is from a lower income tier from Nepal or India or some of the other countries that I work with, yeah, maybe sit down and do that math and think about, okay, if I do have to come back to Nepal afterwards, how will I pay back that loan? There, there is though some good news. Even if we assume that things stay status quo, which I hope, and I’m pretty, I’m I think it’s, I’m cautiously optimistic that they won’t.

But there are other markets as well. So I’ve had a lot of candidates, or former clients, I should say, graduate from business school, not be able to get jobs in certain in countries and then. Being able to move to Dubai. Dubai for some reason, has started attracting a ton of candidates, primarily from South Asia but from other parts of the world who might be having trouble getting some of those work permits.

You could do worse than live in, Dubai’s not perfect, but [00:06:00] you could also do worse than live in Dubai, right? The salaries are pretty high. The standard of living, if you have a white collar job there is, it’s not the worst outcome. So it’s not I can’t stay in the us. That’s it.

There’s no other it’s not a binary of, it’s either the US or it’s nothing. And then I think the second point is I, we’ve just seen. So many things, let’s take something from a different facet of policy. The tariffs, right? The tariffs were announced and the markets went crazy, and in the months that have followed, oh, actually, here’s the tariff, but this one company, their products aren’t gonna be subject to the tariff.

And then there’s this other company that maybe they’re not gonna have to pay the same tariff. And I can’t help but wonder if some of these. Some of these very large companies that are getting tariff exemptions, their ability to lobby for. The H one B, maybe lowering of the H one B fee. If they’ve been able to successfully lobby tariffs, they might be success, able to successfully lobby against these, true, these [00:07:00] visa fees.

And a lot of these big companies, these big tech companies are in fact some of the largest employers of post MBA talent in the us. So I am cautiously optimistic that. This could be, hopefully right now it’s the big, the flash and storm and the, the making, the big splash, right?

Everything’s about showmanship and making the big splash. And maybe in the aftermath of the storm, that initial PR media storm, maybe the reality will start to calm down a little bit. Yeah, the other good news is that if you’re applying now, that means you would enroll in 2026. You would, if it, if you’re talking about the US two year program, you would graduate in 2028.

At that point, who knows what might happen. I like to think that what we have seen so far in terms of the Visa policies, hopefully. Roughly the floor about as bad as it can get. I think if they start implementing a similar thing to OPT, that could be the same thing. But if we just assume that okay, right now what’s been announced is that these foreign students all have to do, you can’t stay here, you have to [00:08:00] go someplace else.

It, we assume that’s like the initial negotiating position. It’s just gonna chip, it’s just gonna get, it’s got nowhere else to go. It’s even worse. So we’ve, we now have two and a half years roughly until. People applying now would have to really implement, or be really affected by this in a.

In a pragmatic and tangible way. And so that’s why I’m hoping that the little chipping away and the chipping away things will start to get a little bit better and a little bit better and a little bit better like we’ve seen with other facets of policy. Didn’t like a bunch of the CDC employees that were all fired under Doge didn’t more than half of them I think were recently rehired.

Yes. Back again true. Whatever you think of the policy, it seems like some of the policies are. Being slowly walked back. And so I think if you. If you’ve got an adventurous spirit, I, and by the way, if you apply now, sorry. I know I keep going, but I like, if you apply now, let’s say you get accepted, you don’t have to show up until August of 2026.

So that will give you [00:09:00] time, like definitely. Apply now and see what happens between now and August of 2026 to make the decision to not apply now, because you’re rightfully scared. I’m not blaming anyone, but to not apply now, maybe by maybe six months from now he’ll be like, ha, just kidding. I’m doubling the number of H one Bs.

Yeah, we have no idea what’s gonna happen. So things are So give yourself that optionality.

John Byrne: Yeah. And things are so uncertain that could very well happen because, one day at tariffs are on one country the next day they’re not one day they’re pausing the ab the interviews for student visas, the.

Say they’re not there’s litigation all over the place, challenging many of the presidential actions that have been taken that have put them in limbo despite all the headlines. So it’s, it, there’s more uncertainty than there is certainty about any of these things. And as you point out, you, if you [00:10:00] did apply this year, the odds are gonna be in your favor if you’re an international student, frankly, because there is no question.

That international applicant volume will be down at all the top schools in the us, which means that to maintain some semblance of a global class. Admission directors are going to have to dig a little bit deeper into their international applicant pools to select candidates. In a way, if you play the long term and in the BA, in, in many graduate degrees or long term bet, I think you’re gonna be.

Oddly better off. And it may even be that the schools will really even go out of their way to help international students in ways that they haven’t in the past because of these actions in Washington. And what do I mean by that? Just a more welcoming reception than the already welcoming reception you would get hiring immigration lawyers and people that can help you.

If in fact there is a [00:11:00] challenge of one kind or another. I think the takeaway is not to be discouraged and throw up your hands to say, ah, I always dreamed of coming to the United States and getting an MBA or a graduate degree in business. Use this as an opportunity to actually increase your odds of getting into a better school with the understanding that when you get out there, probably most likely be an administration change and a change in these policies if they even get completely adopted as Maria points out.

Wouldn’t you think that’s the best strategy, Caroline?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yes, I agree. I think that it’s good to take a longer term perspective because it is such a long timeline, right? If you’re applying to a top two year program as you say, you’re gonna be coming out of the program at the end of the Trump presidency and things may look very different.

And Maria rightly points out that. Everything is very volatile, right? So one thing gets announced and the next week it [00:12:00] gets rolled back, right? They’ve done so many things where they’ve realized, oh, actually that was a really bad idea after all. So

They’ve changed things. So things may not it might, may not turn out to be as bad as we fear.

And then I would also encourage candidates. To apply to the US schools, but why not hedge your bets and apply to an international program as well? Agreed in a time of uncertainty. As Maria said, create options for yourself. And so I would encourage candidates to apply to the top US programs, but also apply to top international programs as well and see what offers you get.

And then you can make a decision. As Maria said, it will be closer to the time when you would be starting the program and there may be more clarity about the situation in the US and what your options are in international markets as well. So I think that given the current circumstances, a good strategy is to hedge your bets and apply more widely than you might [00:13:00] have otherwise done.

John Byrne: Plan Bs are good. Let me just say business schools in the US have for years advised international students that those should have a plan B in the event that they can’t get with a US company. The other thing to, to keep in mind incidentally, in terms of MBA employment is that most of the companies.

That basically employ the lion’s share of MBAs are all global concerns. So you can be hired here and if there’s any challenge in getting you employed here in the us you can simply start in an office outside the United States with a hope of coming back when things clear up. So that is also another important thing to keep in mind.

And I’ll just say this. Despite whatever messaging you’re reading in your local newspapers or on your streaming platforms or television stations about how immigrants may not be welcome in the us that’s not true at all. Universities are diverse places. Welcoming. [00:14:00] Embracing loving the diversity of their students and particularly those from different cultures and backgrounds that enrich the educational experience.

There is no Dean that I’ve ever encountered who said they want fewer international students. It’s the exact opposite. They’re putting out message after message, telling people that they’re still welcome and wanted. Needed in the classroom. Now, Maria, in the past we’ve seen applicants who try to say, okay, can I time my application and my enrollment in a program to what I think might be the next recession?

And we know that in recessions applications go way. In part because some people lose the opportunity to gain advancement in a recession. Some people get unemployed. Some people just realize, hey, a recession is a good time to take a time out and get a new educational credential, which may allow me to do things I otherwise can’t do.[00:15:00]

But it’s almost impossible to time a recession and I’m imagining it’s impossible to time what’s going on here now.

Maria Wich-Vila: Yeah. I mean if we could all time, when everyone’s been talking about a stock market crash that to, not to bring another disparate topic in, but like everyone’s been talking about, it’s a bubble.

It’s a bubble. I’ve been hearing ’cause a bubble for a year and a half. True. Yeah, you can’t time or ask, for example, ask the people who enrolled in business school, like who got into business school in 2020. Like there’s always gonna be these external shocks. We can try to predict a recession, but who knows if it’s going to happen?

Who knows if there’s going to be some sort of virus or the opposite of a virus. Maybe there’ll be a virus that helps us all live healthily forever. Who knows? There’s so much uncertainty out there that who knows what to do. So I think. I think yeah, have that optionality. I think go ahead and apply.

Now if there is a recession though, which everyone seems to think is coming at some point, at that point, it’s going to be harder to get accepted. And as Caroline has pointed out, so rightfully, if other international, high quality international students are [00:16:00] spooked by the current H one B talk, now is your chance.

International candidate. Jump in there, shoot your shot like you might be able to get into a school, assuming of course that you’re qualified, but. You might have a lot less competition now than you normally will, so this could be a golden opportunity for you. And one final as one thing that I wanted to point out was that I was thinking, okay, Maria, let’s say that, you just said that maybe there’s gonna be walk back of some of these and there’s gonna be, maybe he’s gonna change.

But even if there isn’t a change, right? Let’s think about this. The companies themselves are gonna have, and you started to alluded to this John, when you mentioned that a lot of them are global concerns. They’re gonna have now a two year window in which to say. Okay. We know that we’re not gonna keep these people in the states, so let’s open a huge office in Vancouver.

Let’s open a brand, an enormous new office in Toronto. Whatever that is. Because I was thinking back to over the summer when it looked like maybe a bunch of international students wouldn’t be able to get any student visa at all. And I know that some of the business schools we’re looking [00:17:00] at, do we rent out some space in Toronto and do Zoom classes?

We do a hybrid. What we did during COVID. I’ve heard that. I think Rice, I was actually having dinner last night with a dear friend who was, say he’s from Texas and he was saying that Rice has some sort of a campus in Paris and that they are leaning really heavily on their global campuses around the world to still be able to service these students who had gotten accepted.

So things like that, like if. Even if our sort of my very cautious and perhaps irrational optimism turns out to not be true, let’s say the things get, the OPT is banished and all, everyone is banished and it’s the worst case scenario. Again, there’s gonna be two and a half years for these companies. To quickly find, okay, fine, we’re gonna open up an office in Mexico City and we’re gonna pay people really well and we’re gonna what?

Whatever that is. ’cause they’re, the companies are still gonna want the talent, right? Just because the political administration doesn’t want the global talent in the country. That doesn’t mean that the country’s employers don’t want that talent. They [00:18:00] want that talent, they want that intellect, they want that energy and that drive to make their companies better and to make more money.

So they have a very strong incentive to not only be lobbying for these. Visa changes to go away, but if they don’t go away, they have a very strong incentive to come up with some way to provide, to provide those incomes and to provide those perks and some sort of a compromise type of situation.

So again I think if you’re applying now, if you’re going in with eyes wide open, shoot your shot. That’s my, I would absolutely tell people to to try that.

John Byrne: Yeah, I totally agree. And, generally this is my rule of thumb and Maria and Caroline, you may or may not agree with this, at the top MBA programs, they’re so selective that the people who apply to them generally are very self-selecting group.

So I always say that roughly 80% of the school’s applicant pool. Is qualified to actually get accepted, get in, do [00:19:00] well, and land a good job. And yet we know that at Stanford, the acceptance rate is 6%, that Harvard is 12 Wharton and Columbia is, a little under 20 or so. So there are a lot of really good candidates who aren’t getting in.

Which leads me to this, if you’re an international student who thinks okay, so these US schools just might dip a little more into the domestic pool to make up for the offset of international candidates. As it turns out, there is a little notice. Clause in the big beautiful tax bill that was passed here under Trump that places severe limits on federal loans for graduate students.

Now, the current grad plus loan program allows students to borrow up to the cost of their graduate programs. That comes to an end in July of next year. After that, grad students borrowing will literally be capped at [00:20:00] 20,500 bucks a year with a lifetime graduate school loan limit of a hundred thousand. That’s a big deal because, at the top MBA programs it’s not on typical.

For a student to borrow over a hundred thousand dollars easily. And so these caps are also going to affect domestic enrollment. So again, that, that contributes to your ability as an international candidate to get in both. The likely decline in competition not only from internationals but also from domestic students here, interestingly enough, that Bill, which passed has different limits for a professional graduate degree, but the bill basically says that only med school and law school qualify as professional degrees and not business school.

That’s another wacky thing that’s happened that will affect. Domestic enrollment as well. So I, I side with Maria and [00:21:00] Caroline to me the advice is, look long term. Don’t be affected overly affected by the change in policies in the US or the climate here. Understand that if you apply now and you matriculate next year and you graduate in two years after that you’re gonna be facing probably a very different environment.

Also understand the odds are in your in your favor, in getting into a highly selective, really good program in this coming year. And know that, while people too often calculate the value of an MBA based on short term variables, like what’s my starting salary gonna be? What is my sign-on bonus?

The truth is the MBA has enduring value over your lifetime. So it rewards you over your entire career and not just for the first or second years. And you can’t go wrong by graduating into a network of helpful and supportive people from a great school and [00:22:00] receiving a great education. So I think bottom line, we’re telling you apply.

Don’t get convinced by your colleagues or anyone else that this is a bad time to come to the us. Opportunity. Some of the best opportunity come comes when people perceive there to be significant challenges. And I think this is really true with business school. We hope we convinced you to come and try and hedge your batts too, as Caroline noted.

I think that’s really super important to have a plan B when you apply and toss a bunch of apps to the European schools which have excellent superb world class MBA programs and real international cohorts. 90% of the students not from the countries where the schools reside. Toss a bunch of them in your mix for your target schools to give you these different options at the end of the day.

This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Thanks for listening.

Maria

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