Exploring the predictions for business education in 2026, John Byrne, Maria Wich-Vila, and Caroline Diarte Edwards dive into how technological trends, especially AI, will shape the MBA landscape. Maria kicks off the discussion by highlighting that AI’s role will expand but with a growing need for discernment. Despite AI’s potential to simplify tasks, she cautions against over-reliance on it, pointing out the competitive disadvantage that could arise if everyone adopts the technology without critical engagement. Business schools are thus expected to sharpen their focus on critical thinking skills, ensuring students are equipped to navigate this evolving environment.

Caroline adds depth to the discussion by emphasizing how business schools have already begun integrating AI into their curricula, transforming it from a mere elective to a foundational element. This integration underscores the importance of judgment and creativity—skills that AI cannot replicate. Caroline argues that authenticity and interpersonal skills will be crucial differentiators for students competing against AI-driven processes. As business schools cultivate these human-centric skills, they also prepare students for a job market where human creativity and connectivity become vital assets.

For MBA hopefuls and business education enthusiasts, these insights highlight a future where the fusion of AI and human skills creates new opportunities and challenges. Schools are not only adapting but are actively evolving to meet the demands of an AI-augmented world, ensuring students emerge as adept, discerning leaders.

Episode Transcript

Note: This transcript was generated by AI and may contain minor inaccuracies.

[00:00:04] – John

Well, Happy New Year, everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets & Quants. Welcome to business Casual, our weekly podcast with my co-host, Caroline Diarte Edwards and Maria Wigvilla. Caroline, as you know, is a co-founder of Fortuna Admissions and a former Managing Director of Admissions at Enzian. Maria, of course, is our favorite Harvard MBA and the founder of applicant Lab. We want to talk about the new year. What can you look forward to in 2026? What are our New Year’s predictions for business education in general and the MBA in particular. Our conversation follows our annual feature on New Year’s predictions, business school thought leaders look ahead to 2026. That’s the headline on the story at Poets & Quants, where we asked deans and other leaders in business education to give us their predictions for the year. For us, we are looking at, as always, a year that we’re going to start with a lot of challenges, but a lot of promise and a lot of hope. Maria, why don’t you start us off with what you think is going to happen in in 2026?

[00:01:31] – Maria

Well, I think one of the key things, regardless of… I know that there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot of different factors in terms of political or economic, but I think the one thing that we can count on is that the dialog around AI is going to continue to increase, shift, change. I think AI is going to simultaneously take on an increasing role in day-to-day discussions and how business school students apply to business school or within business school. But I also think that there’s going to be growing discernment and awareness around all the places where AI is going wrong. I personally have been heavily using AI or experimenting with it, and even though it’s been out for a few years, it’s still You see the promise of it, but I have also encountered more times than not, it just feeds me something that sounds so good. It tells it to me with the utmost confidence, and it is so proud of itself when It delivers back to me absolute garbage. I think that we are going to start seeing these paradigm shifts where we acknowledge that AI is here to stay, but we also realize that we cannot simply rely upon it as a crutch and take whatever it says at face value.

[00:02:49] – Maria

I think that there’s going to be a change in the education landscape to not only incorporate AI more, but to also teach these levels of discernment and critical thinking. At the end of the day, that’s what business schools have always taught in many levels. I don’t think that AI, if anything, AI makes it more important to be a good critical thinker, because if it’s really easy for you… One of the things that I always find so funny is that people are like, Oh, AI makes things so easy. But if it makes it really easy for you, it also makes it really easy for your competitors. If you’re competing in a job market with other people who are also just spending 30 seconds to put a prompt into AI and they’re like, Hey, this is my ticket I’m out of here. I don’t actually have to do any thinking. Well, guess what? Now you are also at a competitive disadvantage. If it’s easy for you, it’s easy for everyone else. I just think that the attitude around AI will have to shift in the education landscape. Along with it.

[00:03:46] – John

Caroline, your view on AI and its impact in 2026 on business education.

[00:03:51] – Caroline

I think we’ve seen a tremendous transformation in 2025 with schools infusing AI into the curriculum and really embracing this. And it’s been a tremendous challenge for schools, and I think it’s very impressive how quickly they’ve risen to the challenge and launched new courses and also just integrated AI into the existing curriculum. So I think that that will continue to progress. The AI will not be an add-on or an elective, but it will just be part of foundational curriculum and confused in everything that you learn about at business school. And I completely agree with Maria that judgment is super important, that you can’t count on AI to get things right, clearly. And so that human judgment and having the skills to use it properly are absolutely critical. And so business schools play a very important role in teaching students how to do that. And I think that also in an age of AI and so much fake content, humanity becomes even more important, and humanity gives you an edge, right? So cultivating your authenticity is even more important than it might have been in the past, because people will be competing with bots, and your differentiator is your humanity and your creativity and your ability to connect with people and so on, all those interpersonal communication skills that for the time being, machines cannot replicate.

[00:05:30] – Caroline

So I think that that is something that schools are looking to cultivate and support students in differentiating themselves in the marketplace. And of course, it will also impact the job landscape and the recruitment opportunities. We were talking before we started recording about consulting and McKinsey planning on hiring, increasing recruitment in 2026. And in times of change, management consultants always do very well, right? Whether it’s a positive change in the market is changing and growing and innovating, or whether there’s a recession and companies have to cut costs. Either way, consultancy firms do well. And this is just a massive transformational challenge for organizations of all sizes, which is therefore a fantastic opportunity consulting firms. I think that we will see very strong recruiting, especially in management consulting in 2026.

[00:06:38] – John

Yeah, definitely true, because it’s early stage is still, and a lot of companies are trying to figure out how to take advantage and leverage AI technologies. Schools have taken a very aggressive stance in the curriculum, and I think a lot of companies are going to be very eager to hire young people who then can immediately teach teach them how to deploy AI for decision making, for data analysis, and for operational efficiencies. In this early stage, while everyone worries about AI eliminating jobs, I think for MBAs in particular, older graduates, I think there’s going to be more opportunity on the employment side as a result of AI. I also think that up until now, a lot of schools have done experiments, they’ve done pilots with using AI in the curriculum. I think 2026 is going to come and allow us to see AI in full bloom at every business school. It’s true that every business school has done something in AI by now. But in 2026, the schools that haven’t quite figured it out are going to figure it out and really deploy it and embed it in every single course in a way that makes sense to get graduates job ready for employers who really need these skills.

[00:08:05] – John

The other thing about this is what Caroline also said. In a way, it requires schools to double down on soft skills. Why? Because it’s something AI can’t do. As AI gets better and better, it’s important that people can collaborate effectively, can present and persuade well, can negotiate with others, can do the kinds of things that AI, frankly, can’t do. And so getting graduates ready to deal with ambiguous decision making and presentation and persuasion is going to be more important than it’s ever been in a world where AI will be doing a lot of the nitty-gritty number crunching that was the province of analyst jobs for many undergraduates and some the A’s, frankly. The other big issue, I think, is the political situation. We will be entering the second year of the Trump administration. We know there’s been a fair amount of anti-immigration rhetoric and anti-immigration action in the United States. It’s caused a great deal of fear among those who may want to come here for a US education. I’m thinking that, as we’ve said before, international applications are going to be down, and it’ll probably be down significantly, given both those anti-immigration initiatives that have occurred, as well as the new $100,000 tax on an H-1B visa, that’s going to make it a little more difficult to stay in the US, even with OPT, beyond your OPT training.

[00:09:56] – John

I would think that that is a advantage for domestic applicants because schools are going to have to dig deeper into the domestic pool. It’s probably even good for the international applicants who actually apply because they’re also going to have to dig deeper into those international pools because you got to understand that a lot of admission officers will be accepting people, particularly from abroad, who may or may not be able to come. And so they’re going to over-invite people, I would think. Caroline, don’t you think that’s true?

[00:10:30] – Caroline

Yes, absolutely. And we’ve seen that in round one that there has been a full, at least in our experience, in international applicants being willing to apply to the US and focusing more on international schools. And so it has made it more competitive for the candidates getting into the top international schools. And at the same time, as you say, those who do decide to apply to the top US schools have a better chance of getting it right now. So rather paradoxically, it could actually be a great time to apply to a US program for an international candidate. But sure, I’m in a challenging time for admissions. And of course, the international applicants bring so much to the classroom in terms of diversity of perspective and different experiences and so on. And I expect we will see a decline in the percentage of international students at the schools next fall, which is a shame for everybody, for So candidates who might have the advantage of having the US education and all the opportunities that come with that and won’t take that route, as well as the domestic candidates or the domestic students who learn so much from their international peers.

[00:11:46] – Caroline

So it’s unfortunate. Perhaps it will be interesting to see how things continue in the higher education landscape this year. I wonder if given the Trump administration attention’s tendency to flit from one thing to the next and his short attention span, whether perhaps other things will take precedence and perhaps the attack on higher education will diminish. So let’s see. It’s impossible to predict, of course, what the Trump administration will do. By its very nature, it’s very unpredictable. But I think it’s possible that the attacks that we’ve seen in 2025, perhaps, will subside in 2026.

[00:12:30] – John

Right. The other issue, of course, is the economy, because the economy often determines application volume. And we know the economy in the US right now is pretty uncertain. There is a possibility that the economy could fall into a recession, which tends to create a surge in applications as people look in front of them and see fewer opportunities available and think that that’s a great time to go and get a graduate education, increase your credentials and your opportunities. What do you think about that, Maria?

[00:13:05] – Maria

Yeah, it’s possible that if there is a recession in the US economy in particular, that there may be an increase in domestic applicants that might make up for the shortfall in international applicants. Where that ends up netting out, I’m not sure. But I think something that combines both the political and the economic discussion is I think that more of the international business schools are going to start seeing that high influx of talent from around the world. So the US is no longer the number one default destination. Even if Trump, let’s say, decides to stop attacking higher education, so student visas are easier to come by, Who knows what’s going to happen with OPT and H-1B? I mean, I’ve got clients from Round 1 who were international who got accepted. Two years ago, they would have grabbed those spots without a second thought. But now a lot of them are asking, rightfully so, what happens if two years from now I graduate, and I’m not allowed to stay in the country, and I’ve got $180,000 US dollars of debt, it does start to become a pretty scary proposition for a lot of people. But I think that the US’s loss is also Asia’s gain, Europe’s gain.

[00:14:17] – Maria

I also want to say that even in the short term, if some of these Visa, Michigas, and lunacy gets clarified, the US is also not funding innovation right now. We’ve funding scientific research that is the engine and has been the engine of the economy ever since World War II in this country. Even if these short term visa issues do get sorted, I don’t know if the US is going to be the place for the next 20 or 30 years that is the real engine of growth in the world. All of this is to say any shortfalls in international candidates to the US schools, I think we’re going to start seeing this might be the rise It’s the beginning of the rise of some of these Asian schools that have been slowly but surely climbing their way up the quality ladder. Maybe in the next year or so, we start seeing real big jumps in terms of their presence on the global stage and their marketing themselves and becoming really a top-of-mind, first-choice destination for a lot of the world’s talent.

[00:15:21] – John

Right. The other issue we see happening already is universities coming to business schools and asking for more funding, putting higher taxes on business school tuitions and fees, because the university is in a more precarious financial position given the funding suspensions from the federal government and state governments. So it’s putting more pressure on business school economics and what that could mean. In one sense, there are a lot of MBA programs, particularly those in second-tier schools that are run at a significant loss. And they are like in supermarket, you have so-called lost leaders, where you basically price certain basic items at or below their cost to drive people into the store. It’s a similar policy that many business schools have where you basically underprice an MBA, despite the high prices you see, the high price tags, you actually underprice because there’s a lot of rampant discounting, so that very few people pay those price tags. The reason for that is because you want a US news ranking, primarily, that will cast a positive glow on all your other programs and allow you to have a prestige across all the schools’ programs. Because after all, US news is MBA ranking often is associated with the ranking for the entire school.

[00:16:58] – John

So some schools are willing to operate with red ink. Now, that may be less true when the university comes knocking on the dean’s door and says, Hey, I need to increase the tax on your business school revenue by double because we have shortfalls in all to other areas. And that may lead some deans to conclude that, Hey, I cannot afford to have a small MBA program that loses money every single year. That could be a problem that becomes more obvious obvious in 2026. Caroline, what do you think?

[00:17:33] – Caroline

Yeah, I agree. I think there’s a lot of pressure on business schools, given the shift in integration of AI, which has costs. If you’ve got to revamp the curriculum, there is a cost associated with that. The decline in international students coming to the US will hit many programs very hard. We’ve seen over the past few years some closures of MBA programs. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw more closures of schools outside of that top tier in 2026.

[00:18:09] – John

Maria?

[00:18:11] – Maria

Yeah, I agree with Caroline. I think there will be more closures of these smaller programs that are perhaps not financially viable, but maybe to take their place, we’ll start seeing increasing numbers of microcredentials, perhaps one-year MBAs or mini masters or certificates that are both less expensive, perhaps, for the student, but still provide revenue for the school and still provide that some level of upskilling to allow people to use that business school education to advance their careers, even if it looks different from the traditional two-year full-time residential MBA that we’ve become so used to. I think that might be some of the nimble adaptation that some of the schools might need to keep their top line afloat.

[00:18:59] – John

What about some of the specialties that have emerged? There’s been in this generation a greater interest in sustainability, even though we now have in the US an administration that basically has little to no interest in sustainable enterprise. Or entrepreneurship, where schools have invested massively in helping students create business plans and find investment for ideas and projects. Or what about data analytics, where many schools have really doubled down on that in the last five years, given the overwhelming amount of data currently available to business decision-makers. How do you see things like that playing out in 2026? Caroline?

[00:19:49] – Caroline

Yeah. So I think we see increased interest in entrepreneurship, and we’ve seen some very impressive numbers in the careers data from 2025 of the number and percentage of students from some of the top programs who are starting their own company or joining a startup when they graduate. And so I think given all the opportunities that AI creates, this is a wonderful time to start a company. I think we’re at an inflection point where we’re going to see a lot of new companies emerge and new winners. So there’s a tremendous upheaval right now, and that creates opportunities for entrepreneurs. So I think that we have seen that in 2025, and that will continue this year. So definitely entrepreneurship is a huge area. And then I think the skills that are relevant for consulting. So as you mentioned, data analytics and be able to use those tools and have the judgment to know how to make decisions based on data analytics. As as well as change management skills, organizational management, given that a lot of those consulting projects will be about managing transformations at a large scale. So I think that all of those, the electives that are also about softer skills and leadership and change management will get a lot of take up in 2026 as well.

[00:21:27] – John

Maria?

[00:21:28] – Maria

Yeah, you mentioned the the increasing interest in sustainability, and there’s no question as to why that is the case. I think every other day there’s a new headline about either extreme, some extreme weather happening in multiple places in the world all at once. I am a little sad in that. I feel like in the past few years, there’s been this huge increase in interest from students and schools alike. I don’t know that the job opportunities are materializing, though. When I have folks reach out to me and say, Well, I want to use the MBA to pursue a sustainability focus for sustainable business, it’s not clear to me that corporate America is necessarily stepping up with the sorts of job opportunities that match that skill set. I do think that is part of, John, the political environment that you referenced a few minutes ago. I think that’s been a little bit sad, and I do wonder if that’s the case. I’m saying this based on my instinct. I haven’t done any actual research, but it does feel like there aren’t a ton of sustainability jobs out there. I wonder if we’re going to start seeing a pulling away based on a combination of both the political factors and also maybe there aren’t a thousand sustainability consultant jobs materializing every year.

[00:22:47] – Maria

If we might start to see, not an abandonment of the issue, but certainly perhaps less enthusiasm for it.

[00:22:54] – John

Overall, are you a bull or a bear for business education in Caroline, Bull or Bear?

[00:23:03] – Caroline

Well, I think it’s a very complex picture, and I’m not sure how things are going to play out this year.

[00:23:09] – John

You’re half Bull, half Bear.

[00:23:11] – Caroline

Right. I think that the international programs are going to do very well in terms of demand. The US schools, I think it’s going to be a more of a mixed picture. I think the top schools will always do well because they have a loyal pipeline that is coming through every year, regardless of where we are in the cycle and regardless of what is happening in the marketplace. So I think the top programs will continue to do well. I think the class composition will shift a bit as we’ve discussed, but I think that it will be tough for some of the mid to lower-tier programs.

[00:23:50] – John

Okay. Bull or bear. Maria?

[00:23:52] – Maria

I feel like if you were to combine a bull and a bear together and then caffinate it, you’d get a Tasmanian devil. That is just spinning around in this hyperkinetic flux. And that’s my prediction for the upcoming year. I’m not sure where it’s going to land. Yeah, I’m not sure where it’s going to land, but it is spinning and there is some chaos and a lot of unpredictable in its path. But yeah, I think there are going to be some bearish situations and outcomes, as Caroline just mentioned. And I think that that means that it’s interesting that business schools themselves. I always get a kick out of when I go to a business school’s website, especially a school that touts its marketing department, and their own website is actually not very good. Now it’s going to be a chance for the business schools themselves to practice what they preach. For years, they’ve been teaching things like change management and how do you manage innovation. Well, now they themselves are going to have to reinvent their own offerings, start walking their own talk and asking themselves, Okay, we’re the ultimate case study. We are now trying to determine what we’re going to do, and seeing how they adapt, whether it is through, I don’t know, microcredentials or shorter courses or hybrid online versus in-person.

[00:25:06] – Maria

But I don’t know where it’s going to all land, but I do think that there’s going to be a lot of ups and downs and a lot of spinning-arounds.

[00:25:14] – John

I think that’s true. I think I’m more a bull than a bear because after all, I tend to be or try to be optimistic. If you have been listening to our podcast over all these, you will know that you are really listening to three very optimistic and hopeful people here. So the mixed view from Caroline and Maria is scary to me because these two people are eternal optimists. I also think that in every challenge, there’s great opportunity. And one thing that a business teaches you in a business school does is that a challenge is a time to actually gain a triumph, not a failure or a defeat. Because there’s so much opportunity in these challenges in these difficult times, and to look at them that way as opposed to, Oh, my, what are we going to do now? Is really one of the secrets of success and resiliency and proving people wrong. You got to love to prove people wrong. I’m a little bit more of a bull than a bear, although I acknowledge it’s going to be some challenges, but I think out of those challenges are going to come some changes that are going to be very positive for the world of business education and for the people who engage and connect with it.

[00:26:37] – John

So there you have it, 2026. Happy New Year to you. If you are applying in round 2, round 3, or a subsequent round, if your target schools have one, good luck to you. If you’re still thinking, Oh, my goodness, should I get ready for round 1 in September of this year and start my thinking now? You should. Don’t be dissuaded by the political wins in America. As rapidly as they have changed, they will change again. And with the onset of the midterms in the US, things could be dramatically different in a much shorter time frame than you can imagine. Also, remember, you apply in September, you don’t matriculate until a year later. You don’t graduate for two years after that. Guess what? The Trump administration is going to be long gone. Because we’re all three eternal optimists here, we don’t predict any continuation of that administration, right? Maria is crossing her fingers.

[00:27:48] – Maria

And my toes. I’ve got both hands, fingers crossed. I’ve got the toes crossed.

[00:27:56] – John

So there you have it, everyone. Hey, have a great new year. We’re rooting for you, no matter where you are in the application process or whether you’re in a leadership position at a business school. Know that this is going to be a fascinating year for you. It will be filled with challenges. And you know what? If you are a leader in this field and you don’t have a challenge, you don’t have a job. Enjoy it. Love it. All right. Happy New Year. This is John Byrne with Poets & Quants. Quads.