The latest episode of the “Business Casual” podcast dives into the evolving dynamics of Round 3 MBA applications amidst a steep decline in application volumes. Hosts John Byrne and Caroline Diarte Edwards explore how this downturn is reshaping the admissions landscape, turning Round 3 into a more viable option for applicants who might otherwise have missed earlier deadlines.

Historically, Round 3 has been seen as a long shot, especially at top-tier schools that often have few spots left and are looking for unique profiles. Caroline explains that while this remains partly true, the current drop in applications is unprecedented, opening new opportunities for those considering a late application. Schools are now more likely to use Round 3 to fill gaps that weren’t addressed in the first two rounds, particularly for non-traditional applicants.

This episode provides an insightful perspective for prospective students, as John and Caroline emphasize the need for a strategic approach. They suggest that applicants should assess their unique strengths and consider how they might fit into the remaining spots of these programs. With the decline in application numbers presenting a rare chance, aspiring MBAs might find this third round to be an unexpectedly promising opportunity.

Episode Transcript

Note: This transcript was generated by AI and may contain minor inaccuracies.

[00:00:06] – John

Well, hello, everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets & Quants. Welcome to business Casual, our weekly podcast. Today, I’m joined by our longtime co-host, Caroline Diarte Edwards, who, as you know, is the former Managing Director of Admissions at NCI and a co-founder of Fortuna Admissions. Maria is out today. It’s just me and Caroline who are going to talk about round three. The round two deadlines are pretty much over, and the data that is in on them, at least what we could scrounge around and get, is pretty devastating to to be honest. One top 10 school says their apps are down by 30%. Another school in the top 20 says their international applications are down by 43%, and their domestic apps down by 11%. A school outside the top 25 says their apps are down close to 30% as well. What all this means is that Round 3 is going to be a different ball game than it traditionally is. Historically, round three at many schools is the smallest round, basically eliciting the fewest number of applications. That may be true today as well. But in the context of these major declines in MBA applications for rounds one and two, we think that schools are going to be much more likely looking at the round three as a way to round out their classes and fill in gaps that couldn’t be filled in, but typically by the round one and round two application volume.

[00:01:57] – John

Caroline, it is It’s true that many people come at this saying, Round three is really not the best round to apply in. And if you can, by all means, you should be applying Round 1 or at least Round 2, which tends to be the most popular round. But this year, because of the dramatic decline in applications in those first two rounds, don’t you think this should make applicants look at Round 3 differently?

[00:02:26] – Caroline

Yes, I do. So first of all, perhaps we talked for a moment about the traditional dynamics in round three because it does vary across schools. So you’re absolutely right that at the very top US schools, there are very few places left in Round 3, and there are The schools at that stage are looking for specific profiles, more unusual profiles. They’re not at that stage filling the class with investment bankers or typical management consulting profiles and so on. So it’s definitely historically been much more competitive. And of course, HBS even dropped Round 3 entirely a few years ago because it wasn’t… I guess they found it wasn’t really serving much of a purpose because they were filling the class in Round 1 and Round 2 in any case. So Round 3 at the very top schools has always been intensely competitive. And so our advice would have been only apply if you’ve got something very unusual or exceptional. And then that can work, right? We do see people getting into the very top schools with that profile in Round 3 every year. Now, that is true for the very top US schools. For schools beyond the M7, then Round 3 was always more of a serious proposition.

[00:03:49] – Caroline

So there would have been more space in any case at those schools in Round 3. And that is also true at the top international schools. Of course, many of the international schools have more than three in any case. So INSEED has four rounds. Some other schools have more than four rounds. And when I was at INSEAD, something that I tried to do is forecast application volume and try to keep the level of competition equal across rounds because I didn’t want to be accepting people in round one that I would reject in round four or lose people in round four and have to turn them away if actually they were equally as as other people that we were admitting. So we were trying to take the best of the overall pool rather than skew it to earlier rounds. So the dynamics in round three were different across schools. So it’s really always the M7, where it was traditionally very, very difficult in round three unless you had that stellar profile. But I do think that will be different this year. The numbers that you’ve mentioned as regards to the declines that schools have seen are, at least in my career, unprecedented.

[00:05:01] – Caroline

I have never heard of such a dramatic drop at the top schools from one year to the next. Of course, MBA applications are cyclical. It’s always a bit of a roller coaster when you look over the decades, how application volumes evolve. But such a dramatic decline is very, very unusual. So I think that does open up opportunities for candidates in round three at the very top schools that might not otherwise have been there. And so I think it’s an interesting point in time where we’re getting news now that means that candidates who might have missed the round two deadlines and have thought, okay, well, it’s too late now for the season, so I’ve got to wait for round one. Those people may be now thinking, actually, I can throw my head in the ring for round three. And whereas perhaps that might have been very unwise last year, actually, it could be a great opportunity this year.

[00:06:04] – John

If I’m right, the other problem with Round 3, historically, has been that most schools use it to fill in gaps. If your gender mix is not right, or if you don’t have enough non-traditionals, or maybe people with a certain major, then you fill in to craft your class with round three candidates because you’re really filling holes in a way. So the round three candidate isn’t getting the evaluation that a round one or round two candidate might get because of that phenomenon. Is that right?

[00:06:43] – Caroline

Yes. So they are looking, as you say, to craft their class profile, and they’re looking at a number of factors, gender balance, diversity of professional experience, educational experience, international representation. So of course, admissions officers are looking to craft as diverse a class as possible. And so if you have a very common profile and you are applying in round three, then those slots have pretty much already gone.

[00:07:20] – John

That’s why it’s often considered a Hilmary Pass. But in this case, because the applications have plunged to this degree, I’m thinking that round three people are going to get a fairer and fuller evaluation than they would have in the past.

[00:07:38] – Caroline

Yes, I would agree. Now, what schools often see in the final round, so it’s interesting. So you do see some people applying who are really strong applicants, and for whatever reason, they’re applying in round three rather than earlier, and there could be very good reasons for They have just secured a great GMAT or GRE. Perhaps just the timing of work meant that they couldn’t apply earlier. Perhaps they’ve secured a promotion and their profile looks stronger than it might have earlier in the season. So there can be people for whom round three just makes sense given their profile, and they apply, and you can see that they are still well-prepared applications, and they stand out. But what the schools also see in the final round is a higher proportion of ill-prepared candidates. So I think what happens is that there are people every year who aren’t the best-prepared candidates, and they just procrastinate and put off applying until the very last minute, and the very last minute is the last round. And so schools tend to see more of those candidates who are submitting applications at the last minute. So I think it’s important for candidates, if they are going to apply now, to really distinguish themselves, because there is more of a distinct difference in round three between the pool of people who are good quality candidates who have thought about it carefully, who have intentionally been planning to do an MBA, but just so happens that round three is when they’re able to submit it, versus this pool of candidates who apply in round three, who are ill prepared and have not as invested as much time and effort in crafting their application and their profile and realize that it’s the last chance to

[00:09:41] – Caroline

apply in the season and hastily put together an application. So you really need to distinguish yourself as being in the former camp and not in the latter camp and show that you are a well-prepared candidate. So there may be people right now who look at the opening of round free and think, okay, I should apply now, but perhaps they aren’t as well-prepared as they should be. And so if you haven’t secured a good test score, if you haven’t yet talked to your recommenders, if you haven’t really done any deep research into the schools and which schools you should apply to and why you’re a good fit, then I wouldn’t necessarily encourage those people to apply, because if you’re not a well-prepared candidate, then you’re still going to get rejected from the top schools. So it’s not that the top school is going to be desperate for candidates that are going to admit people who haven’t taken the time to prepare a strong candidacy and prepare a strong written application. If that’s your case, if you haven’t had time to do that, then it’s still better to wait until round one.

[00:10:55] – John

Caroline, admission teams are basically managing three variables here, right? They’re managing yield, the class composition, and then what reputational risk may exist in the choices that they make.

[00:11:07] – Caroline

Yeah, that’s right. So it can be very challenging for admissions teams when the pool contracts because if there are fewer candidates, then they’re also competing with other schools because the top candidates in their pool are probably applying to other schools and are more likely to get offers from other schools as well. So their yield… So they need to assume that their yield will go down, and all of the schools are trying to manage the class profile and to craft a high quality and diverse class. So that definitely becomes more difficult at the margins as the applicant pool contracts. So it’ll be interesting to see what evolution we see in the class profiles, but from the feedback that we’ve had, particularly the percentage of international applicants, seems to be down dramatically at the US schools. So we expect to see a decline in the percentage of international students at the US schools, unfortunately. So potentially this could be particularly an opportunity in round three for international candidates. Of course, they do face some uncertainty about what’s going to happen with work authorisations post-MBA. So for the time being, nothing has changed. But of course, there have been members of the Trump administration that have threatened OPT, and so there is some concern about whether work authorisation will still be unchanged when they come out of the program.

[00:12:51] – Caroline

So they still face that uncertainty. And last year, international candidates faced difficulties with processing visas because there was a change to the visa process and that disrupted visa processing for students coming in for the fall. So hopefully those systems have settled down. Of course, last year, appointments were suspended for a period of a few weeks. So hopefully that’s not going to happen again. We don’t have any expectation that they’re going to change the visa processing rules again. So hopefully there won’t be the disruption in getting student visas that candidates faced last year. But I would still encourage international candidates to look at visa processing times at the local US consulate. It should only take a few weeks or a few months at most, but I would encourage them to check what are the current visa processing times for student visas before applying in round three.

[00:13:57] – John

The other problem, obviously, is The yield on international students is going to be way down. I mean, not only are the numbers on people who apply from outside the US way down based on what we’re seeing, but then these rates are before videos of citizens and others being beaten up on the street by ICE in Minneapolis and other American cities have circled the world. You may have applied, but boy, when you’re invited to come, you may have a lot of doubts about that. So the yield rates are going to be very low on those international applicants. I also remember someone The director of admissions at Tuck, which is outside the M7, explaining how when Harvard and Stanford and Wharton get fewer applications and therefore have to dig deeper in the pool, there’s a cascading effect on all the schools beneath them in the ranking. For example, last year, Harvard got 9,400 applications, and they were able to put together a class of 943 students. Let’s say their Apps are down by 25%, which, based on what we’re hearing, it would not be out of sorts. That would mean that Harvard is getting 2,400 applications less this year than it had the year before.

[00:15:28] – John

It’s got to dig deeper into its pool to yield a class of 940 students. That means it’s taking people who would have been going to Wharton, Stanford, Columbia, Chicago, Kellogg, and other schools that it wouldn’t have otherwise taken. Then that just keeps going down and affects all the schools beneath it, right?

[00:15:54] – Caroline

It does, yes. It gets very painful as that gets passed on to the next school. So yeah, the competition for strong candidates just increases and candidates will each individually are more likely to get more offers.

[00:16:10] – John

And Caroline, since it’s wintertime and I’m surrounded by snow, I can say that that snowball rolling downhill gets bigger and bigger.

[00:16:20] – Caroline

Yes, that’s right. It knocks out some of the scores, lower down the pegging order. Yeah, it gets very painful. And so schools are really going to be focused on their yield efforts. So they might be offering more in scholarships. They’re going to be communicating very proactively with those admits to try to reel them in and ensure that they ensure that they enroll. So I’m sure the schools are really gearing up on those yield efforts this year.

[00:16:54] – John

Yeah. So, Caroline, who should seriously consider applying in this year’s round three? And who shouldn’t apply?

[00:17:03] – Caroline

I think if you’re a candidate who is well-prepared and you had thought, Okay, well, perhaps my timing is not great right now, so I’ll wait for round one. But actually, you could do round three because you’ve got a good GMAT or GRE. You have recommenders who are ready to jump in and advocate for you. You’ve got some time to work on applications. So the deadlines are… Rant 3 deadlines are around the end of March, beginning of April. So there is time to work on your applications. And if you’ve done some serious thinking about where you want to apply and why you want to apply there, then I think you could put together a strong application. If you’re an international candidate, then consider the visa questions that we’ve mentioned. For example, the visa processing times if you were admitted in round three. Then, especially candidates who have something a bit different to bring to the table. It could be domestic US candidates who have nontraditional experience, perhaps family business background or nonprofit leadership, or perhaps they have diverse experience. Perhaps they’ve worked in management consulting, but they’ve also worked in private equity or for a VC firm, or they’ve worked in industry as well as working in consulting or working in finance.

[00:18:36] – Caroline

If they got some breadth of experience to bring to the table, then that can help you stand out. Or perhaps someone who has a stronger profile than they might have had in round one or round two. Perhaps they’ve had some increased responsibility or promotion. They’ve had some professional experience that can work on a project that can give them a great story tell in their applications, which they might not have had earlier. I think there are a lot of different profiles that could now be viable in round three. Candidates where in the past, you might have told them, Hold on for round one. But at this point, given the news that we’re getting, I think it does open up the field for more candidates.

[00:19:19] – John

I’m thinking people who should not apply round three, certainly if you need a significant scholarship, the money is probably gone. If you want to treat it as a test I guess maybe you should. I don’t know. What do you think?

[00:19:33] – Caroline

Yeah. I mean, schools, as you said, do see definitely a chunk of candidates applying in round three who aren’t well-prepared and that those people would definitely be better off waiting for round one. Yes. So someone who’s got a very uncertain financing situation, if you are going to be relying on scholarship financing, some schools allocate most of those scholarships in rounds one and two. And so there may be fewer scholarships available in round three, or if your candidacy is somehow still a work in progress. So if you are banking on retaking the test and you’re not sure how that’s going to go, I would probably focus on securing a great test and then apply in round one later on rather than trying to do everything at once. It can be very difficult for candidates to try to work on test prep as well as putting together a really strong application at the same time, because of course, they have demanding day jobs as well. So trying to juggle your work, your test prep, plus developing a strong application all at the same time over about a six, seven, eight week period is probably too much for most people.

[00:20:56] – John

So what does a strong round three application actually look like do you think?

[00:21:01] – Caroline

So it looks like a candidate who has really implied intentionally and who has developed a strong profile, who has, as we said, secured a good test, who has strong recommenders. That can often be the issue for candidates who are applying in a rush, that they haven’t given their recommenders enough time, and then the recommenders don’t get their letters in by the deadline. So you should have had those conversations already or have them as soon as possible and make sure that you have people who are ready to step in for you. Every year, there are candidates who submit fantastic applications, and then they’re let down by the recommenders who don’t submit on time or the recommenders throw something together that is subpar, perhaps. It’s just they don’t give enough thought to it. They don’t give enough detail. The recommendation is very brief. And so the far reader is left trying to read between the lines and guess, do they actually really support this candidate or are they hesitant? And is that why they’re not saying as much as we would like? So candidates who apply in a rush are often let down by weak recommendations or rushed recommendations.

[00:22:30] – Caroline

And then schools want to see some certainty that you are ready to jump in quickly. So of course, with round three, you’re only going to get your decision a few months before you actually need to be on campus. So they want to have a sense that you are ready to jump in and so that you can quit your job, mobilize your financing, get yourself all analyze logistically. And so they want to see some certainty that you’re committed to this step and that you’re ready to jump in and you’ll be ready to get moving quickly when you get admitted. Because, of course, there is an advantage to applying in round one or round two that it gives you much more time to organize your financing, organize your housing, organize, give notice to your employer, wrap things up. Perhaps you also have a partner, and you need to take that into account and move a family. So there are a lot of complicated logistics associated with starting an MBA program. And sometimes round three, applicants don’t fully anticipate that. And then get admitted, and then reality hits of everything that they need to do before they would start the program, and then they ask for a deferral, which is really annoying for the schools because the candidates should have known.

[00:23:58] – Caroline

If you’re applying in round three, you’re going to have a short window to get yourself prepared and to be able to hit the ground running when you start the program. So don’t apply in round three if you’re going to then have doubts about the logistics and ask for a deferral because schools will most likely say no.

[00:24:17] – John

And, Caroline, I think you have for this navigating this complicated situation, a simple decision framework. What is it?

[00:24:25] – Caroline

Yeah. So if you’re thinking about whether you should apply now or whether you should wait for round one. Then give some serious thought to how competitive your profile is. As we’ve said, although application volume is down, it doesn’t mean that it’s an open door to a top school. So be realistic about how strong your profile looks, and it’s a good idea to get some feedback on that as well. I mean, we talk all the time with candidates who are thinking about when is the right time to apply to business school. And we’re happy to give people feedback on that. So you could talk with us, you could talk with other admissions coaches about how competitive your profile is, especially in a round three pool. Ask yourself if you have thought through carefully the schools that you’re applying to, have you done your research? And are you really committed to those schools? Sometimes candidates at this stage frantically submit a lot of applications because they think they just want to get into business school and they don’t want have to wait another year. So they submit a whole bunch of applications and they haven’t really thought carefully about their fit and what they bring to a specific school and what they’re going to get out of a specific school.

[00:25:43] – Caroline

They haven’t really taken the time to get to know the schools well. So I would discourage someone for applying if they haven’t really kicked the tires on their target school list. So schools really want to see very clear motivation in round three. So that’s an important thing to take into account. And then do you have the time to work on this? Because it takes a lot of time to put together a strong application. So the deadlines are not far away. So it’s a matter of seven or eight weeks. That’s not a lot of time to put together a strong application. So do you have some downtime during that period? If you’re going to be working 18, 90 hour weeks or traveling, then this might not be time to work on your applications. And then, as we mentioned, are your recommenders ready to jump in quickly? You should be briefing them now, mobilizing them now, making sure that they are happy to advocate for you and ready to jump in. If they’re not available, if your best recommenders aren’t going to be available, then it might be better for you to wait until round one.

[00:26:56] – John

You want to say yes to four important questions. Am I competitive right Am I fully committed to the skills I’m applying to? Can I produce a high-quality application quickly? And can I mobilize my recommenders? I’m thinking, Okay, you may disagree with me on this, but AI may make this more possible today than it was before. Because to the extent that I can prepare a recommender by reminding him or her what interactions I had that were positive and what projects I worked on, and that recommender could actually put this into AI and I say, Write a recommendation for this candidate based on this memo. You know AI is going to just produce something very quickly that actually with one go through could probably work. With essay questions, I know it’s a little more difficult, but it also depends on how personal and intimate you are with your AI engine. You could probably get some drafts and some help there. Or am I crazy? Should you completely avoid AI in making a dash to round three?

[00:28:01] – Caroline

Well, I think it’s about how you use the tools, right? So the input needs to come from you or your recommender because the scores really want the details and AI can’t come up with that for you, or it can hallucinate for you, but that’s not going to be very helpful, and schools will pick up on that. So the examples and the details and the key points need to come from you and your recommender. But it can help with drafting. But then, as we said, that the input needs to come from you, and it needs to be edited by… If it’s the recommender, it needs to be edited by them. If you’re talking about your essays, then you need to have a very heavy hand in the final product rather than just outsourcing it to AI.

[00:28:55] – John

Indeed. For all of you out there who are interested interested in round three, you should know that Fortuna Admissions is going to hold a webinar with a number of Caroline’s colleagues in about a week. You should go to Fortuna Admissions’ website and register for that. You can also refer to our story on the website, Poets and Quants, that actually has been written by a colleague of Caroline’s, Matt Simons. The headline on that story is MB Application Slump: Giving Hope for Round 3, which gives you a sense of whether or not you are a viable candidate in what is at many schools, the very last round to apply for entry into the full cohorts of this year. Hey, this is John Byrne with Poets and Quads. I hope this is helpful. Thanks for listening.