2024: Predictions & Hopes For Business Education & Life
Maria |
January 11, 2024

In this episode of Business Casual, the hosts discuss key trends in business schools for 2024. They focus on the growing use of videos and interviews in MBA admissions, moving beyond AI-assisted essays emphasizing the importance of authenticity in applications.

They also cover the evolution of teaching methods post-Covid, with a notable shift towards hybrid online and in-person classes in MBA programs. The hosts touch on the increasing relevance of AI in business education, highlighting the need for understanding its ethical implications. Furthermore, they discuss the rising importance of environmental and health topics in business studies, especially in European schools.

This episode is essential for those interested in the evolving landscape of business education and how it prepares future leaders for the challenges of 2024.

Episode Transcript

[00:00:07.370] – John

Well, hello, everyone. Happy new year. Welcome to 2024. We’ve got a new year. Hopefully it’s going to be a good one for all of you and for us. We certainly have our fingers crossed, and we’re incredibly enthusiastic about turning the page in 2023 in that regard. Business Casual, our weekly podcast with my co-host, Maria Wich-Vila and Caroline Diarte Edwards are going to look into the crystal ball and find out, well, what are our predictions for what’s going to happen in 2024 and business education. Our last podcast, we looked over the year of 2023. We highlighted some of the big trends and some of the big stories. So in this podcast we’re going to look ahead, and I think some of the themes that we talked about last time are going to be very resonant in 2024. And Maria, I wonder if you’d start us off with what’s number one on your list.

[00:01:13.430] – Maria

There are so many things, it’s hard to prioritize, but I think one of the things that might be the most impactful that we haven’t seen in the past is going to be the continuing impact of ChatGPT and other generative AI and what that means in terms of first of all, I think some of the admissions offices coming up with rules as to what is or isn’t allowed. I think some of the different schools have had different approaches to you can’t use it at all to you can use it, but within limits. So there’s just been a lot of ambiguity around what is going to can an applicant use ChatGPT, for example, in their essay writing process. So I think that’s going to start emerging. And I also think that there will be a continued expansion of video essays to try to combat the suspicion that might now surround the written materials.

[00:02:09.150] – John

Yes. Caroline, you agree?

[00:02:11.710] – Caroline

Yes, absolutely. I think schools will be concerned about authenticity in applications and really looking for that authentic voice. So I think that it’s even more important for candidates to get their personality across in their application so that it doesn’t sound like something that is rather bland that could have been AI generated. And I absolutely agree that I think schools will put more emphasis on video elements and perhaps also interviews as well as those are so far, we cannot send in a bot on our behalf to do those elements of the application. So I think schools will be really looking at those to give them a sense for what is unique about the individual and also to cross check how an individual communicates on video and how they communicate in interview. And then does that cross check with how they come across in the written application. And I think another way that AI will impact business schools is that of know schools are integrating this into the curriculum and figuring out how to help students grapple with this and harness this in their future careers. And something that popped up that I thought was interesting in one of your articles, John, where deans were talking about their expectations for the year ahead.

[00:03:36.630] – Caroline

One of them was talking about how ethics will really be reinforced as an important part of the curriculum in the context of AI. Right. Because there are so many ethical concerns that this raises, and it will be important for students to know how to grapple with that and hopefully harness AI in a positive way for society rather than in a negative way. So I think that schools, it’s definitely going to have an impact, and that’s something that they’re all grappling with in terms of how to integrate that into their curriculum.

[00:04:08.790] – John

So let me pose a question to the two of you about generative AI. It’s possible to create an avatar of yourself and have your avatar answer a question. And I wonder, with schools that have asked applicants to do like a 1 minute intro video as part of an essay question, if an applicant actually used an avatar themselves to do it, would it be greeted well by the admission staff, or would it be immediately rejected? Caroline, what do you think?

[00:04:40.910] – Caroline

I think it’s an extremely risky approach.

[00:04:46.490] – John

Creative, too, and innovative.

[00:04:48.770] – Caroline

It is, it is. But I don’t think it’s advisable. I mean, look, I know somebody once who wrote a kind of joke essay for their standard undergraduate application and got in because the admissions office thought, wow, this is really off the wall and fun and memorable. So in some cases, perhaps if everything else is outstanding and they come across well in all the other elements and they interview well, then it could be seen as innovative. Right. But I think it’s an extremely risky approach. Not something I would.

[00:05:28.090] – John

Right. Maria, you agree? Right?

[00:05:31.160] – Maria

I enjoy always our resident diplomat, Caroline, using words like risky and not advisable, I’m like, what a stupid idea. What a dumb. I mean. This is not one of those, know, I think there’s room for creativity and for standing out. But on the other hand, talk about completely missing the point of even having a video element, right? If you think about it from the admissions perspective, the video element is meant to get a sense of who you are as a person, to hear your real voice, both literally and figuratively. Like, what kind of a person are you? What’s your personality? And so to submit an avatar AI computer generated thing is not just not like, oh, it’s not different and creative, but it also completely misses the point. And so you’re kind of signaling to them that you either don’t know or don’t care that the admissions process is trying to get to know you as a person. So I would use far less diplomatic words than risky and not advisable. I think it’s a terrible idea.

[00:06:36.190] – John

Yeah. There’s no doubt, however, that the debate over generative AI and how it should be used in the classroom and admissions will become even more relevant in this coming year. There are a lot of schools have been grappling with this issue over the past year in particular, and many of them have come up with some conclusions about how it should be taught, how it should be harnessed, how students should use it or not use it. So I think that’s going to continue to be a very big and important topic of discussion. I think another thing is, and this has been mentioned by the dean at Cornell who we interviewed for our story on predictions for the year, learning habits of students have changed post Covid, it’s clear that digital education has become much more prominent, and it’s going to be interesting to see how schools experiment in in person learning with digital learning techniques. There obviously are ways to use video and streaming and the online interventions that are used in online education in an in person format. And to the extent that you can deliver more the flip classroom, the so called flip classroom that many people have talked about for years, but do it much more effectively with digital education so that when you do meet in person, those sessions are even more dynamic and more interactive than they even have been.

[00:08:11.420] – John

Should be probably something that we’re going to see in this new year, and I think you’re just going to see more of a mix. So in other words, there’s digital education and then there’s in person education. I think we’re going to see more of a blending across these two divides, and that’s been occurring mostly in the part time arena, where schools have increased their flexibility for part time students. So that many programs now allow you the opportunity to do your courses in person or online if you can’t make the class, and I think in more traditional full one year or two year in person programs, you’re going to see more use of digital learning techniques. Maria, you think that’s possible?

[00:09:01.710] – Maria

It’s definitely possible. In fact, in November I was back at HBS and we sat in on a class being taught by a friend of ours from school who is now a professor at the school. And it was really surprising to see against the back wall that there was sort of a panel with video and some people were actually dialing in, presumably because they were not feeling well or something that day. But that’s something that would not have even been allowed. Even if it were technically possible or technically feasible, it certainly wouldn’t have been allowed a few years ago. So even a school like HBS, which is so strict about things like you must attend class and you must be on time and all that stuff, even for them to start having, like in the back of the classroom, oh, here are some people who are attending from someplace else or not in the classroom. So I’m definitely seeing that. And I think we’ve seen some schools start to offer things like a hybrid MBA, where you can do some semesters virtually and some semesters in person. So you get kind of the best of both worlds.

[00:09:56.600] – Maria

And I suspect that a lot of schools will start doing that, even if just to appeal to a broader base of students. Right. To try to get more people to say, look, you don’t have to take two entire years out of your life and uproot everything about yourself for two years to get this degree. We will work with you so that you still get the education and the benefits of the experience, but in a less disruptive the. I think you’re right, John. I think that’s definitely going to be something that continues.

[00:10:26.530] – John

Yeah. And one of my favorite people out there, Brian Mitchell, who runs the full time MBA programs at Goizueta at the Emory University, has mentioned the same thing. The flexibility to take the MBA has dramatically increased because demand for flexibility is great. The days of just thinking about an MBA as simply a two year program are long gone. In many cases, online versions of the MBA and part time versions of the MBA far exceed in enrollment. Full time MBA programs that almost all the schools that offer these options, which just shows that people really want the flexibility to get this education in ways that don’t force them to quit a job and have no income for two in on digital learning. I would think that a school, Caroline, like INSEAD, with multiple campuses, could use digital learning in really new and fascinating ways. Because if you’re sitting in Fontainlo and you have people, students in Singapore and San Francisco and Abu Dhabi, you can bring them all together digitally and make that part of the in person program, right?

[00:11:51.010] – Caroline

Yes, and they’re already doing that. The school has already adopted a lot of these practices and integrated virtual teaching into the program, and they’ve been doing some really interesting stuff, particularly of course spurred by the pandemic, but that has only continued and of know with a new dean at INSEAD. I think one of the reasons that he was brought in, Francisco Velozo, was because he has this experience at Imperial of driving digital transformation. And I think that will be a key part of his mandate at the school over the coming years to continue. I think the school has already made a lot of great strides and I think that that is something that will really be a top priority for them over the coming years. And that’s one of the reasons why he got the job. And I absolutely agree that there is a lot of demand for flexibility and schools are looking to address that. And this is part of the continued shift away from the two year program. Right. And I think that in the future there will still be the flagship two year programs at the top schools and those will remain strong.

[00:13:05.200] – Caroline

I don’t see those losing appeal anytime soon. But for the rest of the markets I think there’ll be far more diverse offerings. And one of the challenges for schools, I think, is that the two year program is so widely recognized. Right. And it kind of has a brand in itself and it’s great to have all of these new innovative master’s degree programs and different options, but it’s kind of a confusing marketplace for applicants and then also for recruiters. So I think it’s a challenge for schools to try and get that same brand recognition for those additional degree programs so that the students and the graduates from those programs will get the same value and return on investment that the graduates have had from the two year MBA programs.

[00:14:00.930] – John

Yeah, definitely true. The other thing I think that’s going to be a big issue in the new year is the continuation of the importance of climate change, sustainability and health care. These are areas that the business schools have embraced, have added specializations, concentrations, majors, degree programs, experiential learning opportunities, and I see no decrease in that. In fact, in the sustainability area where we’re doing a lot of special reports and we’re going to be holding a very big event on sustainability this coming year. That will be an international event where 3000 people are expected to come, this is just a massive area. Of course, this is also why we chose INSEAD as our MBA program of the year, because INSEAD completely revamped its curriculum from top to bottom around this topic. And just more and more schools are jumping on this bandwagon because this generation really is interested in some of the big societal challenges we face as a human species. And they think that business is a way to address those challenges. So sustainability, healthcare, climate change, are going to be big issues for the business schools in terms of their curriculum, in terms of their experiential learning opportunities and this whole area, ESG, it’s just exploding.

[00:15:36.630] – John

Caroline, you see this in Europe in particular. I think actually, in many ways, the european schools have actually taken a leadership role in this field.

[00:15:46.030] – Caroline

Yeah, I agree. It’s much more integrated into the curriculum at schools like insead than it is in many of the top us schools. And I think that also reflects just a general awareness of these issues. As you know, I’ve lived in the US for many years, and I’ve lived in Europe for many years, and I spent a lot of time in Europe. And I am aware that, or I am quite surprised at how big the difference is in the consciousness of environmental issues and people’s personal responsibility in that regard in Europe versus the US. And the US is way behind in that. And I think that hopefully the US will do some catching up. But it’s great that some of the schools like INSEAD have been taking the lead on this also, Oxford said business School, because what Business Casual. You wrote about this in your article about INSEAD being the school of the year, that businesses, what businesses are telling business school is that they are having difficulty translating their sustainability goals into day to day reality of how they execute and how they implement and new business models. And so they’re really looking to a new generation of leaders to understand how to grapple with this and how to lead and implement.

[00:17:11.220] – Caroline

And so I think it’s wonderful that schools are looking to make this not just an elective right, not just an add on that’s nice to do, but really a fundamental part of the curriculum because it will be a huge part of the graduates jobs going forward. And fortunately, this generation really wants to take on that challenge. Thank God that they do. And they are aware that they are heading into a market that has a great deal of uncertainty. I think as we look forward, we look ahead to the coming year. To me, it seems a more uncertain world and more chaotic than this time last year. And business school candidates and students are aware that they are entering a very complex geopolitical environment and that this has an impact on their businesses. Right. In terms of supply chain shocks, which we’re seeing right now in the shipping industry. Given the conflict in the Middle east, things can change extremely quickly. And understanding how to address that and how to operate in a very ambiguous environment will be in a very important skill going forward. And I’m thrilled that schools are looking to really make this a fundamental part of the methodology.

[00:18:37.410] – Caroline

Sorry, their pedagogy.

[00:18:39.090] – John

Yeah, so true. And you mentioned the uncertainty and the chaos, and it’s true. I think with social media, we tend to focus more on the negative than the positive. And there are more people against things than there are people for things. And I’m just going to say that at business school, I find students who are much more positive, much more upbeat, much more willing to acknowledge the good things than the bad. And I don’t know if this is just a question of the people who go to business school are more optimistic in general or what it is. I mean, Maria, do you think that’s true?

[00:19:26.870] – Maria

I think business schools attract people who are doers, people who make things happen. I think it’s a self selecting sort of thing where you’re probably not going to bother going to business school. I mean, you’ve got to be optimistic if you’re going to take out $100 to $200,000 of loans to get this degree. I mean, you’ve got to have a pretty positive attitude in general or optimism about your own life. So I think there’s that part of it, right? You wouldn’t even invest in such a degree if you didn’t have some sort of fundamental positive assumption or positive hopes for yourself. But even in general, I do think that business schools tend to seek and let in people who are definitely hands on, who make things happen, who don’t just sit around and complain and say, oh, management in this company is so messed up, and we’re just going to sit around and at the coffee maker, I think that’s right. They look for people who are the people who are like, I don’t think it should this way, and let’s change things, and why don’t we try something different? Those are the people who get into business school.

[00:20:29.770] – Maria

Those are the people who are attracted to business school. And so I’m not surprised to hear that when you are talking to business school students that you are seeing people with sort of a proactive, can do attitude.

[00:20:40.170] – John

Yeah, I’m going to just tell you, it always gives me tremendous hope for the future to meet with young people who have goals in life to not only obviously improve their own lot, but to improve the lot of others. And they do focus on the positive, and they are doers. I think this is nothing more than another endorsement for, why do you want to go to business school? To be honest, because I would want to be surrounded by positive people who are going to get things done and to put some emphasis on this, in this world that often seems so uncertain, so chaotic, so filled with turbulence. Since January of 2020, 113 and a half million jobs have been created in the United States. Unemployment has fallen from 6.3% to 3.7%. There’s been no recession, even though economists have been forecasting one for over a year. We’ve had a quick recovery from economic shocks with inflation, interest rates falling. They’ve had higher growth or lower inflation than any advanced nation on earth. And yet everyone is hand wringing and crying and moaning. So I think this coming year is a hope. This is less a prediction than it is a hope on my part, that people realize the good things that are happening and the positive things and lift themselves off of the social media morass and quagmire that exists, that brings them down and makes them be against things instead of for things.

[00:22:18.590] – John

I mean, that’s more of a hope than it is a prediction for 2022. And maybe, Caroline, do you have a hope as opposed to a prediction for the new year?

[00:22:30.610] – Caroline

Well, in terms of business schools, I’m hoping that the recruitment market will pick up, because 2023 was not a fantastic year for people graduating, and some employers postponed offers and weren’t recruiting in such large volumes. So it was not a fantastic year recruitment wise. And I think that given the factors that you’ve mentioned, it may well be a more positive outlook for people coming out of business school in 2024. So that would be wonderful. And then I think that a new Trump presidency would be very bad for business schools. We know that in the past, it really damaged the flow of international candidates to graduate education in the US. And so that’s just one small reason why I hope that that’s not the prospect that we will be facing at the end of this year.

[00:23:26.950] – John

Yeah. And obviously, that’s a big issue in the United States, the election that’s kind of really dominate the news and the impact of that, which is a reason why I want to put a positive spin on things, because there’ll be a lot of negative advertising and a lot of negative comments coming out in this very polarized world that we have other predictions in terms of application flow, we always talk about, when is it a good time to apply, when is it a bad time? And the truth is, we’ve seen, we think, an uptick in applications this current season. This past week is a very big week where round two applications are due at most of the big brand name schools, and we’re seeing an uptick there, not a big one. But an increase over the previous year. And Maria, do you think that’s going to continue into the rest of this.

[00:24:27.910] – Maria

Mean, one never knows. But if I had to guess right now, I’d say things will probably be pretty steady going into this year from what we just saw or what we’re seeing right now. So I don’t expect any major shocks downward nor upward, of course. I feel like every three months we’re like, oh, there’s a whole new thing that we’d never anticipated happening three months ago, and here we are. But as of this moment, in this very delicate moment in which we find ourselves, I think application numbers will probably be steady this year.

[00:25:01.390] – John

Yeah. And Caroline, you’re seeing an uptick in your business as well that suggests that things are a little bit better than they were last year in terms of application flow. Do you think that that’s going to pretty much stay steady throughout the year?

[00:25:16.130] – Caroline

Yeah, I think that the 2023 – 2024 season will have seen slightly larger volume than 2022 – 2023. And I would agree that where things stand right now, as of the beginning of January, it looks to me like there will be no major trend up or down in application volume. And in any case, candidates are often trying to look into the crystal ball, right. And think about when is the best time to apply. And I would always encourage someone just to apply when it’s the right time for them, rather than trying to second guess the market, because you cannot second guess the market. And if you’re a strong applicant, then you can stand out regardless of where the cycle is. So I would encourage people to focus on the best timing for them personally, rather than being too concerned about reading the admissions tea leaves.

[00:26:10.230] – John

Yeah, that’s really true. Always the best way to apply is when you can put your best foot forward and not regard, with no regard to how the application flow is or anything. Look, the best time to apply is when you know you can do a good application and your chances of getting in are increased because of that. So, Caroline, one surprise is Stanford has not yet named a new full time admissions director for their MBA program, and it’s been now over a year since the loss of their full time director. What do you make of it?

[00:26:54.920] – Caroline

Well, I think that it’s been very difficult for them. It’s a bit of a hot potato role to take on, and it’s not an easy position to fill. I know that they’ve cast a very wide net. I know several people who’ve been contacted for the position. It feels like every time I bump into someone they mention. Oh, by the way, I was contacted for the Stanford GSB editions role, so they have been casting a very wide net. What I’ve also heard is that they are looking to appoint, ideally, a Stanford alum, Kirsten Moss, who was there previously, who was fantastic, was an HBS graduate. And from what I understand, the school feels that the optics of having another non Stanford MBA might not be not so positive. So I believe that they’re looking to appoint someone who is a Stanford graduate. And of course, that’s not easy because Stanford graduates are so incredibly successful and the cost of living in the Bay Area is extraordinarily high. And it’s a challenging role. Right. Look at what happened in admissions last year with all of the legal action, and there’s ongoing legal action this year. So it’s potentially a very high profile, challenging role to take on for not a vast amount of money.

[00:28:18.700] – Caroline

So I think the ideal candidate would be someone who is a GSB grad, who’s already made their money and is not so concerned about their income, but relishes the challenge of it’s a wonderful role.

[00:28:36.140] – Maria

Right.

[00:28:36.650] – Caroline

What a fabulous thing to be the gatekeeper to what many people regard as the world’s best business school. Possibly, right. Or one of the world’s best business schools. So it’s a huge honor to have that role, but at the same time, it is a real hot seat to be in, I think. So perhaps the ideal candidate would be a GSB alarm who hasn’t read the news in 2023 about what was going down in admission.

[00:29:09.790] – Maria

From the marketing side of it, though, Caroline, if they have an HBS alum, I mean, the story is like, our graduates are so successful that they don’t need to take on this role, and so we had to take someone from a lesser business school.

[00:29:26.870] – Caroline

That’s a great spin. I love it.

[00:29:33.350] – John

The other issue, and I bring this up because of the recent resignation of the president of Harvard University and all the rhetoric around her. And I wonder, you know, what impact this is going to have on DEI efforts. All the schools are very much dedicated to enrolling diverse classes of students, and not merely by gender and race, but socioeconomic background, industry, work experience, geography, and more broadly defined diversity measures. But to the extent we now have a Supreme Court decision that bans favorable treatment to applicants who apply from minority backgrounds. And you also have now the first black female president of Harvard resigning the job under tremendous pressure and very harsh publicity, what impact this is going to have on DEI efforts at business schools? Caroline, you have a view on that?

[00:30:45.870] – Caroline

Well, I think this is all part of the culture wars in the US, which are sadly being mobilized. It’s being activated to mobilize people for the purposes of upcoming elections. And I think that’s very sad. So I am less positive than you, John, about people getting out of social media, not going down rabbit holes of negativity. Unfortunately, I think that that is only going to increase this year, and AI will only worsen that, unfortunately. So I think that we will see ongoing culture wars on campuses, and I think it’s going to be very difficult for schools to manage this. But the schools have the desire and the will to continue with those efforts. I’m sure that they will continue with their DEI efforts. It will just be under greater pressure, no doubt, from certain parties and stakeholders.

[00:31:49.100] – John

Yes, I think that’s right. And I think there’ll be greater scrutiny of this issue and all the whole cultural war issue that’s been going on here, particularly in the United States, for some time. I think in a way, hopefully it peaked in 2023, but with the election coming up and all that, it will likely raise, I’m not so sure that it has peaked. That, in fact, the worst is yet to come. Maria, any thoughts on that?

[00:32:20.890] – Maria

So much for the optimism going into 2024.

[00:32:25.020] – John

That’s why you want to go to business school and be an optimist.

[00:32:27.650] – Maria

I know. Seriously, let’s all just embrace that. Let’s just envelop ourselves in that energy. Let’s just surround ourselves with, let the.

[00:32:34.400] – John

Political science students do and the law school students.

[00:32:38.690] – Maria

Oh, my gosh. I feel like the social media thing, it’s just the last election, the last couple of elections have shown that, unfortunately, fear and loathing are extremely profitable. And I think the algorithms are just getting smarter and smarter at giving us those dopamine hits and those hitting the amygdala, that fear based lizard part of our brains. And they’ve realized that they can make a lot of money that way. So I just think they’re getting better and better and better at guiding us.

[00:33:13.870] – John

Here’s something interesting, and it has little to do with predictions for the new year, but it does tie into this discussion. Two weeks ago, I was sitting down with the dean of UNC’s Kenan Flagler business School, who just joined the school from UVA, Darden. Terrific person. And she pulled out a piece of paper and drew a chart on the piece of paper that basically showed a line soaring upward from 2005 to the present. And during the pandemic, it went up just a little bit and what the line represents is the amount of mental illness in America. And so the question was, well, what in the world happened in 2005 to have caused this great spike in mental illness? And it turns out that in 2005 was sort of the year of the widespread adoption of the smartphone and access to social media and its addictive properties, and how people are so addicted and so unlikely to be present wherever they are, and to be influenced by all of this craziness that goes on in the world, poured into your social consciousness by anonymous people who have no courage to stand behind what they contend they believe.

[00:34:37.390] – John

And I’ll have another hope that people try to break their addiction with this technology and to unleash themselves from their phones and be present with their friends and with their relatives and with themselves, instead of being so completely addicted to this technology and leashed to it in a way that influences what they think, what they say and how they act. That is not a prediction, but it is a hope. So let’s just be really hopeful about 2024. Anyone who sits down when the calendar changes and they do a resolution that they inevitably don’t follow through on, just a stating of a resolution, is a hopeful act in and of itself. Let’s all hope that all of you out there become more present, become more positive, become doers, instead of people who comment on other people’s failings and focus on the positive in life, because that’s how you’re going to have a positive, more enthusiastic, a more meaningful life, by focusing on the positive. In all the years of interviewing leaders in both the corporate and non corporate worlds, one trait above any other that I found in almost every leader, with no exception, is how positive they are and how optimistic.

[00:36:04.600] – John

You don’t get anywhere in this life by being negative. You just don’t. So for 2024, I’m going to put on a smile. I’m going to be a happy person, and I hope you are, too. And again, Maria and Caroline, I hope you’re going to be happy this year. And for all of you out there, I hope that your dreams are realized. And if you are applying to business school this year, know that it’s a great time to go and be in that positive company. Thanks for listening.

Business School News | General | P&Q Podcast "Business Casual"
2024: Predictions & Hopes For Business Education & Life
Maria |
January 11, 2024

Full Episode Transcript:

John Byrne: [00:00:00] Hello everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Welcome to Business Casual, our weekly podcast. We want to talk about international students. Schools are now reporting that a good number of their international recruits who were admitted to programs this fall haven’t been able to show up or have changed their mind.

At the University of Illinois, the school, the Gies College of Businesses, lost about 200 international students in its Master of Finance and Master of Business Analytics programs causing a $7 million hit. To their budget at UC Davis Graduate School of Management, 40 students didn’t show up who were admitted, and that’s resulting in two and a half to $3 million hit on their budget this year.

Both of these things have occurred before the announcement of a hundred thousand dollars tax on H one B Visa. Which will make it more difficult for many employers [00:01:00] to hire international students and keep them in the US for an extended period of time. And we’re getting the new class reports of the, of the new cohorts of students who’ve arrived on campus in the fall of this year.

And Carnegie Mellon is. Down 30% for their international cohort over the past two years. UCLA Anderson School is down 25% over the past two years, and schools are preparing for the worst because of the H one B Visa decision which could affect future employment. Caroline and Maria, my cohosts are in the market helping people get into the best schools in the world.

And Caroline, what do you think?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yeah, definitely seeing concern among international candidates and people holding off on applying for the US schools. So it’s really a shame. I think the international schools, particularly the schools like Inea and London Business School and the other top.[00:02:00]

International European programs will benefit, they’ll get talent that might otherwise have come to the us, which is great for those schools. And I’m very fond of those schools, but it is sad as from the US perspective for sure. On the other hand, you could also take the perspective that.

If you do have options for your career post MBA that don’t require that you absolutely have to stay in the US as an international candidate, then now could be a very good time to apply, right? Because definitely application volume will be down and schools will be perhaps. More open to candidates that might otherwise have been waitlisted or rejected in the past.

For some candidates, this is actually a fantastic opportunity to get into a top school, but from, for, at least from the school’s perspective, it is a shame because, I’ve experienced firsthand the value of a very internationally diverse classroom and the value that brings with a [00:03:00] diversity of perspectives that enriches the learning experience so much for everybody.

Enriches the debate and bring so much to the academic experience as well as the the network and the social experience. So it’s everybody’s loss, right?

John Byrne: Very true.

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: And I think it’s a very myopic perspective that the US government takes that. There needs to be a more of a refocus at US educational institutions on the domestic market because those international applicants bring a lot to the domestic students in enriching their learning and enriching their network.

Of course bring a huge value to the US economy when they stay. So there are very impressive statistics on the value of immigrants to the US economy. So Indian immigrants, for example, are only about one and a half percent of the US population, but they have founded to date about 8% of all the tech startups in the us.[00:04:00]

And for sure some of that top talent from India will now not come to the us. They will go to perhaps they will stay at the great schools that we’ve talked about in India, or they will go to other international schools. So for sure it will be a loss to the us learning experience and to the US economy.

John Byrne: Maria, you run applicant lab which is a platform that helps applicants get into highly selective schools. And many of the people who use your product are international students. What are you seeing?

Maria Wich-Vila: Everything Caroline is saying concern is think a delicate way to put it.

And I think it’s because as the more affordable provider in the market, I tend to get the applicants who maybe they don’t have the family business to fall back on. Maybe they don’t have, large sources of income elsewhere in their lives. And so I think the concern is very real and very merited, right?

I can’t. In good faith, tell someone, if they [00:05:00] really start, sit down and do the math and start to do, run the numbers, if they just assume that things are going to stay as is. And this is the big caveat that I’m, I want to get to in a second, but if we assume that things stay as is and if someone really is from a lower income tier from Nepal or India or some of the other countries that I work with, yeah, maybe sit down and do that math and think about, okay, if I do have to come back to Nepal afterwards, how will I pay back that loan? There, there is though some good news. Even if we assume that things stay status quo, which I hope, and I’m pretty, I’m I think it’s, I’m cautiously optimistic that they won’t.

But there are other markets as well. So I’ve had a lot of candidates, or former clients, I should say, graduate from business school, not be able to get jobs in certain in countries and then. Being able to move to Dubai. Dubai for some reason, has started attracting a ton of candidates, primarily from South Asia but from other parts of the world who might be having trouble getting some of those work permits.

You could do worse than live in, Dubai’s not perfect, but [00:06:00] you could also do worse than live in Dubai, right? The salaries are pretty high. The standard of living, if you have a white collar job there is, it’s not the worst outcome. So it’s not I can’t stay in the us. That’s it.

There’s no other it’s not a binary of, it’s either the US or it’s nothing. And then I think the second point is I, we’ve just seen. So many things, let’s take something from a different facet of policy. The tariffs, right? The tariffs were announced and the markets went crazy, and in the months that have followed, oh, actually, here’s the tariff, but this one company, their products aren’t gonna be subject to the tariff.

And then there’s this other company that maybe they’re not gonna have to pay the same tariff. And I can’t help but wonder if some of these. Some of these very large companies that are getting tariff exemptions, their ability to lobby for. The H one B, maybe lowering of the H one B fee. If they’ve been able to successfully lobby tariffs, they might be success, able to successfully lobby against these, true, these [00:07:00] visa fees.

And a lot of these big companies, these big tech companies are in fact some of the largest employers of post MBA talent in the us. So I am cautiously optimistic that. This could be, hopefully right now it’s the big, the flash and storm and the, the making, the big splash, right?

Everything’s about showmanship and making the big splash. And maybe in the aftermath of the storm, that initial PR media storm, maybe the reality will start to calm down a little bit. Yeah, the other good news is that if you’re applying now, that means you would enroll in 2026. You would, if it, if you’re talking about the US two year program, you would graduate in 2028.

At that point, who knows what might happen. I like to think that what we have seen so far in terms of the Visa policies, hopefully. Roughly the floor about as bad as it can get. I think if they start implementing a similar thing to OPT, that could be the same thing. But if we just assume that okay, right now what’s been announced is that these foreign students all have to do, you can’t stay here, you have to [00:08:00] go someplace else.

It, we assume that’s like the initial negotiating position. It’s just gonna chip, it’s just gonna get, it’s got nowhere else to go. It’s even worse. So we’ve, we now have two and a half years roughly until. People applying now would have to really implement, or be really affected by this in a.

In a pragmatic and tangible way. And so that’s why I’m hoping that the little chipping away and the chipping away things will start to get a little bit better and a little bit better and a little bit better like we’ve seen with other facets of policy. Didn’t like a bunch of the CDC employees that were all fired under Doge didn’t more than half of them I think were recently rehired.

Yes. Back again true. Whatever you think of the policy, it seems like some of the policies are. Being slowly walked back. And so I think if you. If you’ve got an adventurous spirit, I, and by the way, if you apply now, sorry. I know I keep going, but I like, if you apply now, let’s say you get accepted, you don’t have to show up until August of 2026.

So that will give you [00:09:00] time, like definitely. Apply now and see what happens between now and August of 2026 to make the decision to not apply now, because you’re rightfully scared. I’m not blaming anyone, but to not apply now, maybe by maybe six months from now he’ll be like, ha, just kidding. I’m doubling the number of H one Bs.

Yeah, we have no idea what’s gonna happen. So things are So give yourself that optionality.

John Byrne: Yeah. And things are so uncertain that could very well happen because, one day at tariffs are on one country the next day they’re not one day they’re pausing the ab the interviews for student visas, the.

Say they’re not there’s litigation all over the place, challenging many of the presidential actions that have been taken that have put them in limbo despite all the headlines. So it’s, it, there’s more uncertainty than there is certainty about any of these things. And as you point out, you, if you [00:10:00] did apply this year, the odds are gonna be in your favor if you’re an international student, frankly, because there is no question.

That international applicant volume will be down at all the top schools in the us, which means that to maintain some semblance of a global class. Admission directors are going to have to dig a little bit deeper into their international applicant pools to select candidates. In a way, if you play the long term and in the BA, in, in many graduate degrees or long term bet, I think you’re gonna be.

Oddly better off. And it may even be that the schools will really even go out of their way to help international students in ways that they haven’t in the past because of these actions in Washington. And what do I mean by that? Just a more welcoming reception than the already welcoming reception you would get hiring immigration lawyers and people that can help you.

If in fact there is a [00:11:00] challenge of one kind or another. I think the takeaway is not to be discouraged and throw up your hands to say, ah, I always dreamed of coming to the United States and getting an MBA or a graduate degree in business. Use this as an opportunity to actually increase your odds of getting into a better school with the understanding that when you get out there, probably most likely be an administration change and a change in these policies if they even get completely adopted as Maria points out.

Wouldn’t you think that’s the best strategy, Caroline?

Caroline Diarte-Edwards: Yes, I agree. I think that it’s good to take a longer term perspective because it is such a long timeline, right? If you’re applying to a top two year program as you say, you’re gonna be coming out of the program at the end of the Trump presidency and things may look very different.

And Maria rightly points out that. Everything is very volatile, right? So one thing gets announced and the next week it [00:12:00] gets rolled back, right? They’ve done so many things where they’ve realized, oh, actually that was a really bad idea after all. So

They’ve changed things. So things may not it might, may not turn out to be as bad as we fear.

And then I would also encourage candidates. To apply to the US schools, but why not hedge your bets and apply to an international program as well? Agreed in a time of uncertainty. As Maria said, create options for yourself. And so I would encourage candidates to apply to the top US programs, but also apply to top international programs as well and see what offers you get.

And then you can make a decision. As Maria said, it will be closer to the time when you would be starting the program and there may be more clarity about the situation in the US and what your options are in international markets as well. So I think that given the current circumstances, a good strategy is to hedge your bets and apply more widely than you might [00:13:00] have otherwise done.

John Byrne: Plan Bs are good. Let me just say business schools in the US have for years advised international students that those should have a plan B in the event that they can’t get with a US company. The other thing to, to keep in mind incidentally, in terms of MBA employment is that most of the companies.

That basically employ the lion’s share of MBAs are all global concerns. So you can be hired here and if there’s any challenge in getting you employed here in the us you can simply start in an office outside the United States with a hope of coming back when things clear up. So that is also another important thing to keep in mind.

And I’ll just say this. Despite whatever messaging you’re reading in your local newspapers or on your streaming platforms or television stations about how immigrants may not be welcome in the us that’s not true at all. Universities are diverse places. Welcoming. [00:14:00] Embracing loving the diversity of their students and particularly those from different cultures and backgrounds that enrich the educational experience.

There is no Dean that I’ve ever encountered who said they want fewer international students. It’s the exact opposite. They’re putting out message after message, telling people that they’re still welcome and wanted. Needed in the classroom. Now, Maria, in the past we’ve seen applicants who try to say, okay, can I time my application and my enrollment in a program to what I think might be the next recession?

And we know that in recessions applications go way. In part because some people lose the opportunity to gain advancement in a recession. Some people get unemployed. Some people just realize, hey, a recession is a good time to take a time out and get a new educational credential, which may allow me to do things I otherwise can’t do.[00:15:00]

But it’s almost impossible to time a recession and I’m imagining it’s impossible to time what’s going on here now.

Maria Wich-Vila: Yeah. I mean if we could all time, when everyone’s been talking about a stock market crash that to, not to bring another disparate topic in, but like everyone’s been talking about, it’s a bubble.

It’s a bubble. I’ve been hearing ’cause a bubble for a year and a half. True. Yeah, you can’t time or ask, for example, ask the people who enrolled in business school, like who got into business school in 2020. Like there’s always gonna be these external shocks. We can try to predict a recession, but who knows if it’s going to happen?

Who knows if there’s going to be some sort of virus or the opposite of a virus. Maybe there’ll be a virus that helps us all live healthily forever. Who knows? There’s so much uncertainty out there that who knows what to do. So I think. I think yeah, have that optionality. I think go ahead and apply.

Now if there is a recession though, which everyone seems to think is coming at some point, at that point, it’s going to be harder to get accepted. And as Caroline has pointed out, so rightfully, if other international, high quality international students are [00:16:00] spooked by the current H one B talk, now is your chance.

International candidate. Jump in there, shoot your shot like you might be able to get into a school, assuming of course that you’re qualified, but. You might have a lot less competition now than you normally will, so this could be a golden opportunity for you. And one final as one thing that I wanted to point out was that I was thinking, okay, Maria, let’s say that, you just said that maybe there’s gonna be walk back of some of these and there’s gonna be, maybe he’s gonna change.

But even if there isn’t a change, right? Let’s think about this. The companies themselves are gonna have, and you started to alluded to this John, when you mentioned that a lot of them are global concerns. They’re gonna have now a two year window in which to say. Okay. We know that we’re not gonna keep these people in the states, so let’s open a huge office in Vancouver.

Let’s open a brand, an enormous new office in Toronto. Whatever that is. Because I was thinking back to over the summer when it looked like maybe a bunch of international students wouldn’t be able to get any student visa at all. And I know that some of the business schools we’re looking [00:17:00] at, do we rent out some space in Toronto and do Zoom classes?

We do a hybrid. What we did during COVID. I’ve heard that. I think Rice, I was actually having dinner last night with a dear friend who was, say he’s from Texas and he was saying that Rice has some sort of a campus in Paris and that they are leaning really heavily on their global campuses around the world to still be able to service these students who had gotten accepted.

So things like that, like if. Even if our sort of my very cautious and perhaps irrational optimism turns out to not be true, let’s say the things get, the OPT is banished and all, everyone is banished and it’s the worst case scenario. Again, there’s gonna be two and a half years for these companies. To quickly find, okay, fine, we’re gonna open up an office in Mexico City and we’re gonna pay people really well and we’re gonna what?

Whatever that is. ’cause they’re, the companies are still gonna want the talent, right? Just because the political administration doesn’t want the global talent in the country. That doesn’t mean that the country’s employers don’t want that talent. They [00:18:00] want that talent, they want that intellect, they want that energy and that drive to make their companies better and to make more money.

So they have a very strong incentive to not only be lobbying for these. Visa changes to go away, but if they don’t go away, they have a very strong incentive to come up with some way to provide, to provide those incomes and to provide those perks and some sort of a compromise type of situation.

So again I think if you’re applying now, if you’re going in with eyes wide open, shoot your shot. That’s my, I would absolutely tell people to to try that.

John Byrne: Yeah, I totally agree. And, generally this is my rule of thumb and Maria and Caroline, you may or may not agree with this, at the top MBA programs, they’re so selective that the people who apply to them generally are very self-selecting group.

So I always say that roughly 80% of the school’s applicant pool. Is qualified to actually get accepted, get in, do [00:19:00] well, and land a good job. And yet we know that at Stanford, the acceptance rate is 6%, that Harvard is 12 Wharton and Columbia is, a little under 20 or so. So there are a lot of really good candidates who aren’t getting in.

Which leads me to this, if you’re an international student who thinks okay, so these US schools just might dip a little more into the domestic pool to make up for the offset of international candidates. As it turns out, there is a little notice. Clause in the big beautiful tax bill that was passed here under Trump that places severe limits on federal loans for graduate students.

Now, the current grad plus loan program allows students to borrow up to the cost of their graduate programs. That comes to an end in July of next year. After that, grad students borrowing will literally be capped at [00:20:00] 20,500 bucks a year with a lifetime graduate school loan limit of a hundred thousand. That’s a big deal because, at the top MBA programs it’s not on typical.

For a student to borrow over a hundred thousand dollars easily. And so these caps are also going to affect domestic enrollment. So again, that, that contributes to your ability as an international candidate to get in both. The likely decline in competition not only from internationals but also from domestic students here, interestingly enough, that Bill, which passed has different limits for a professional graduate degree, but the bill basically says that only med school and law school qualify as professional degrees and not business school.

That’s another wacky thing that’s happened that will affect. Domestic enrollment as well. So I, I side with Maria and [00:21:00] Caroline to me the advice is, look long term. Don’t be affected overly affected by the change in policies in the US or the climate here. Understand that if you apply now and you matriculate next year and you graduate in two years after that you’re gonna be facing probably a very different environment.

Also understand the odds are in your in your favor, in getting into a highly selective, really good program in this coming year. And know that, while people too often calculate the value of an MBA based on short term variables, like what’s my starting salary gonna be? What is my sign-on bonus?

The truth is the MBA has enduring value over your lifetime. So it rewards you over your entire career and not just for the first or second years. And you can’t go wrong by graduating into a network of helpful and supportive people from a great school and [00:22:00] receiving a great education. So I think bottom line, we’re telling you apply.

Don’t get convinced by your colleagues or anyone else that this is a bad time to come to the us. Opportunity. Some of the best opportunity come comes when people perceive there to be significant challenges. And I think this is really true with business school. We hope we convinced you to come and try and hedge your batts too, as Caroline noted.

I think that’s really super important to have a plan B when you apply and toss a bunch of apps to the European schools which have excellent superb world class MBA programs and real international cohorts. 90% of the students not from the countries where the schools reside. Toss a bunch of them in your mix for your target schools to give you these different options at the end of the day.

This is John Byrne with Poets and Quants. Thanks for listening.

Maria

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