How Competitive Will This Year’s Admissions Cycle Be?
ApplicantLab |
December 16, 2025

Engaging with the recent survey findings from Manhattan Prep and Kaplan, this episode dives into the anticipated competitiveness of this year’s MBA admissions cycle. John Byrne, Maria Wich-Vila, and Caroline Diarte Edwards bring their expertise to analyze why 8 out of 10 business schools expect fierce competition for applicants. This insight is crucial for those gearing up for rounds 2 and 3, as many schools foresee an equal or more competitive landscape compared to previous years.

A standout point discussed is the persistent value of standardized test scores. Despite some schools going test-optional, a competitive GMAT, GRE, or Executive Assessment score still

Episode Transcript

Note: This transcript was generated by AI and may contain minor inaccuracies.

[00:00:06] – John

Well, hello, everyone. This is John Byrne with Poets & Quants. Welcome to business Casual, our weekly podcast with my co-host, Caroline Diarte Edwards and Maria Wich-Vila. There’s a new survey out from Manhattan Prep and Kaplin, the test prep companies, who every year, actually, they do survey admission directors at business schools. This latest survey will be probably very interesting for people who are going to file an application in round 2 and round 3 of this cycle. 8 in 10 business goals, the survey found, expect fierce competition again this admissions cycle. The survey found that 84% predict the current application will be at least as competitive as 24 and 25, 5% expected to be much more competitive, 28% say it will be somewhat more competitive, and 51% believe competitiveness will remain about the same. That’s no surprise to us because obviously, particularly at the really good schools, there’s a lot of deepness in the application pools, and the acceptance rates still are quite low. One of the interesting things that survey also found is that 75% of the test optional schools say that a competitive GMAT, GRE, or executive assessment score still helps an applicant’s chances.

[00:01:46] – John

If you do apply to a test option of school and you think your work experience, your undergraduate record, aren’t as strong as you probably would like, it probably still makes sense to take a standardized test. Caroline, what do you make of this?

[00:02:01] – Caroline

Yeah. I think that despite the headlines, to me, what stands out is that just over half of respondents say that the level of competition will stay about the same. That feels right to me. I don’t think that we’re going to see any dramatic changes in this season compared to last year. It’s difficult to tell because there’s a lot of variable factors and headwinds that are impacting the market. So the US schools are impacted by the concerns about immigration status and visas and all the things that the Trump administration has been up to as regards higher education. So that will probably impact international candidates applying to the US schools, yet there have been layoffs. And so typically when big companies layoff candidates or layoff employees, often there are a wave of mid-20s professionals who are let go, and that can be a perfect time for them to head off to business school. So that can drive an increase in application volume. I think there’s also a lot of uncertainty at the moment about the direction the economy is heading in. And Sometimes that can be good for business schools, but sometimes not, because I’ve also seen candidates in periods of uncertainty hesitate to apply because they’re hanging on to their seat at work and wondering, is now a good time, or should I just wait in a see how things pan out, and perhaps I’ll apply next year.

[00:03:32] – Caroline

So I think that can make some people hesitate. And then, of course, we’re heading into a period of massive industrial transformation driven by AI, and that creates concern about recruitment opportunities, but also a desire for young professionals to learn about that and get exposure. And a lot of the business schools, especially the top business schools, have done an incredible job of integrating AI into the curriculum. And so I think those students who do go to business school will be well-prepared to reenter the job market and manage some of those AI transformation projects that a lot of company is working on. So I think it’s difficult to tell how things will pan out, but I think that the sum of all these parts will mean that I don’t think there’ll be a dramatic difference either way in application volume in this season.

[00:04:32] – John

Yeah, and I should point out that last year, there were a number of schools that reported record applications or near-record application volume. So even if it stays the same, that’s pretty darn good for these schools. Maria, your take on all this?

[00:04:47] – Maria

Yeah, I agree with Caroline. I almost wonder if some of the economic challenges and the layoffs that seem to be looming, if that might drive more domestic US candidates to apply while simultaneously balancing out the fact that I think there are going to be fewer international candidates applying this year. One thing that’s interesting is that this poll was conducted between July and August, and the White House’s proclamation on the H-1B visa, the $100,000 fee, and some of that stuff didn’t start really hitting the news until September. I almost wonder if we were to reask some of these same schools again, Perhaps after seeing the attack, for the lack of a better word, on potential visa situations, work visa situations, rumors or grumblings of OPT maybe being affected, I wonder if they would still have the same opinion now in light of some of these recent announcements, and I’d also love to see, I mean, obviously, they won’t tell us, but what did round one numbers actually look like now that round one is far behind us? But yeah, I think that there are some I think certain populations are going to have a decrease in applications, at least to US schools, but I think other populations are going to have an increase in applications.

[00:06:08] – Maria

It’ll probably net-net end up balancing out.

[00:06:11] – John

Yeah, that’s a good point because clearly everyone is expecting fewer applications from candidates outside the US, given the negative environment in the US for immigrants and all the negative messaging people are getting all around the world about coming here from another country. Of course, there are a number of countries where you even can’t come. Then the examination for student visas has become more stringent and more difficult to get besides the H-1B tax and other things that are looming. It’s interesting. We I’ll point out that the Graduate Management Admission Council did a survey, and they found that in the past year, applications in the US declined by about 1%, but domestic demand rose 5%. So already. That’s a reflection of international candidates being wary of the US in light of Trump’s election. So that’s going to really be exacerbated in this cycle, we think. Incidentally, Secondly, Europe saw an 11% increase in total apps with 65% of the programs reporting growth. I think that’s also a reflection of the decline in interest in US programs from international students. This is also true in Asia, where East and Southeast Asia experience 25% overall increase, including the 42% rise in international applications, which is really interesting because The Asian programs tend to recruit far more locally and less globally.

[00:08:06] – John

That’s an interesting twist, too. Now, one of the things that Manhattan Prep and Kaplin do is they ask admission directors what they want applicants to know. They’re quoted anonymously in this report. One of the quotes really stands out because I think all three of us think this is wacky. I’m going to read it to you. The thing students should know is that an academic transcript is the most important determinant of admissions. Anything else is secondary. Taking the right courses, getting good grades in these courses, having the right undergraduate major these are the things that matter most. Caroline, do they really matter?

[00:08:52] – Caroline

Well, I don’t know. We need to know which school that was because it’s not any of the schools that the candidates that I work with are applying to. So I don’t think it’s one of the top US schools in the survey. They mentioned that the respondents, the majority, are not in the US news top 100, I think. So I suspect that this is perhaps more of a local regional program that is very academically focused, perhaps taking candidates who don’t have a lot of work experience yet because That advice is completely contrary to the advice that I would give candidates who are applying to the top schools. I find it very strange.

[00:09:40] – John

Yes. I know Maria, you agree as well.

[00:09:44] – Maria

A hundred %. I mean, if anything, when you think about what the top business schools are looking for, and again, perhaps Caroline and I are working with candidates who are, in fact, aiming for schools in the top 10, 20, even 50 in the US, that’s just flat out not true at all. It’s not even a gray area of, Well, we can agree to disagree, or it’s nuanced. I think it’s completely not true at all. I think it’s just flat out wrong. When I look at candidates, look, someone with a perfect 4. 0 GPA, but who has then proceeded to then enter the workforce and not really show any initiative, not show good teamwork skills, not get promoted, get fired from a bunch of jobs, that person is not going to get into a top business school versus someone who might have a less than stellar academic record. But then after college went out into the workforce and drove a lot of positive change and showed amazing leadership skills, that person is absolutely going to get in. I have proof in my inbox from yesterday. I have a client whose GPA was below a 2. 5 in undergraduate who got into a top 15, depending on the ranking, sometimes a top 10 program.

[00:11:00] – Maria

If the transcript were the only thing that mattered, this person wouldn’t have even gotten to the interview stage at some of these top programs. I lack Caroline’s natural diplomacy. But even I would normally be like, Well, I don’t know. That’s an interesting perspective, but let’s debate. In this case, I’m like, No, this person, this is wrong. This is actually dangerous to get that message out there because I think it sends a message to people with perfect transcripts, but boring or unimpactful work experience that they have a better shot than they do. It sends, conversely, the wrong message to those high potential candidates who maybe face some challenges in college, but whose academic transcripts do not even remotely reflect their true potential. If that’s you, if you’re in that ladder bucket, don’t be discouraged.

[00:11:52] – Caroline

I’m also saying that you have to take the right undergraduate course, the right course. There is no right course. That you have to take. Schools are looking for diversity of academic backgrounds, not a particular course. So it’s very wacky indeed.

[00:12:09] – John

Years ago, we conducted a survey ourselves. While Well, this may have changed. Let’s face it, it’s a guess in the dark because it changes for every individual candidate. So there’s not one whole way for every person who applies. Each candidate stands on his or her own merits. What we did find is that the standardized test, according to admission consultants who look at who gets in, who doesn’t get in, basically thought that on average, a standardized test accounts for about 16% of the decision. Incidentally, the essays, 15%, just 1% less. Admission interviews, 12%, and your GPA, 10%. So well below all these other characteristics. And that’s a general sense of what the admission consultants who help many people get into these schools, like Caroline and Maria, tend to think on whole. Now, there may have been some changes since we did that survey because of the use of AI and other issues in applications where an interview may be slightly more important or video essay might be more important today, or assume some importance, at least. But there’s no question that I don’t know what this person was thinking by saying that Everything is secondary other than an undergraduate transcript, because after all, that transition from grammar school, rather high school to college, and that first year is often difficult for many people, and it tends to hurt their overall grades.

[00:14:03] – John

There are many reasons why an undergraduate transcript may not truly reflect a person’s academic potential. Now, there are other quotes in here that I think we would agree with. One person noted that, though holding strong grades and work experiences are reviewed, we also look at students’ communication and collaboration efforts, their motivations, their curiosity about the field, their emotional intelligence, and any any leadership potential. And obviously, you’re going to get that through work experience and through the essay that you write for a given school. Caroline, you agree with that?

[00:14:43] – Caroline

Yes, absolutely. The softer skills are really critical for business school. It’s important to have the hard skills as well. They are very rigorous academic programs, and you need to reassure the school that you have the ability to succeed and flourish in that academic environment. But the programs are incredibly collaborative and very much about peer-to-peer learning. So having those strong interpersonal skills, communication skills, teamwork skills are invaluable not just to what you bring to the MBA community during the program, but also what the recruiters will be looking for. And schools have the perspective that past Performance is the best predictor of future performance. So you really need to demonstrate the experience, either through your professional experience or sometimes through your extracurriculars. Sometimes candidates haven’t had the opportunity to really demonstrate leadership skills in a work environment, but perhaps they have done that through their extracurriculars, and they’ve achieved something impressive, been able to mobilize people, influence people, and so on, and demonstrate those skills through the extracurricular profile. So, yes, I would very much agree that those qualities are really important, and schools will be evaluating that in a number of different ways.

[00:16:14] – John

And another admissions officer, quoted in the survey, said that what admission committees really want us to see who they are and whether they fit with their programs culture, values, and community. Maria, your thoughts on that?

[00:16:29] – Maria

Yeah, 100%, because depending on the program, you’re either going to be spending one year or perhaps usually up to two years living on the community campus, being a member of this community. If somebody is not a good fit for that particular culture, it’s going to be a pretty miserable two years for them. It’s not a good fit for them, and it’s not a good fit for the rest of the school. It’s just bad all around. I think this is interesting with the Harvard, the HBS results coming out a day or two ago. People, I don’t think, realize that the cultures between business schools really do vary quite dramatically. I do think, I tell some people, and I don’t know if they believe me, but I’m like, There are people who go to HBS who are miserable there for whom the case method is literally a hell on earth. They get there and they realize, I hate talking, I hate arguing, I hate all of this. I think in some cases, it’s actually, I know always painful in the moment. Getting rejected for anything that you wanted is never fun or pleasant. But in some cases, it’s actually, I think, the school’s doing someone a favor, just like I think, conversely, a booth, rejecting someone who is very smart and very talented, but who might not love doing analysis and might be allergic to numbers.

[00:17:52] – Maria

It’s the same a thing where it’s not a judgment on your merit as a human being, but it’s also like, why would you torture yourself and go to a program where you’re just not going to be happy? I think that this cultural fit is an often overlooked element. People get swept up in the rankings or they get swept up in the name and the prestige, and they don’t realize there are dramatic differences between some of these programs. The experience from a Harvard to a Stanford, it’s really, really, really different, even though people lump them together into the same breath. I do think that if you show that you are a good fit, that your personality or the way how your brain is wired makes you a good fit culturally for a specific program, all else being equal, that’s going to help put your application over the top versus someone with an identical resume or identical test scores or what have you. I really, I wholeheartedly agree with that comment.

[00:18:50] – John

The other thing is the number of people, a large number of admission officers who, even at test optional schools, are encouraging students to to take a test. Caroline, what do you make of that?

[00:19:04] – Caroline

Yeah, I think that in a highly competitive pool, it’s helpful to have a test. So schools are looking at your academic performance. And so if you don’t have a test, then all they have to go on is your undergrad. If you have a stellar undergrad, then maybe that’s enough. But it also shows motivation. It shows preparation. It shows that you’re really serious about the process. Test and that you have been planning this probably for some time because normally the GRE or the GMAT is not something that someone can take one day to the next. Most people prepare for it for a few months ahead of time, and it signals that you have a serious plan about applying to business school. So I advise candidates to take the test if possible. I think if you’re applying to a highly competitive school and you’re really serious about attending and you want to maximize your chances, it’s something that’s within your control. Other things in your application are not within your control. You can’t go back and change your undergraduate track record. You can maybe in the months ahead of applying, maybe make a bit of a difference at work that will give you some great stories to talk about, but you can’t fundamentally change your professional track record.

[00:20:26] – Caroline

You can’t change your extracurricular track record. You can do some extra things. But if you suddenly start walking dogs at the puppy shelter two months before the application deadline, schools are a little bit suspicious about whether that’s something that you’re really passionate about or not. So there’s so many things in your profile that you can’t change, right? And so the GMAT, or the G-Re, is actually one thing that really is within your control and can help give you an edge. And as you mentioned, it is something is taken seriously. When I first took my job at INSEED, I was quite skeptical about the GMAT or the GRE, as many students and alumni are, that we did a study to look at the correlation between various factors in the admissions process and then how people do in the program and what happens afterwards. And there was a very clear correlation between them. At that time, it was just the GMAT that we were looking at, but there was a very clear correlation between performance on the GMAT and academic performance on the program. And this test has been designed for business schools, right? So it does help schools to filter.

[00:21:40] – Caroline

So there’s a reason why they asked for it. So I think that if it’s all possible, then you should take the test.

[00:21:48] – John

Yeah, I wonder, are there signs that you should definitely take a test at a test optional program? Like maybe your undergraduate record isn’t quite as good as you want it to be, or maybe you didn’t get a chance to work for an elite organization that had a strong filter and was highly selective. Maria, what do you think? Are there any triggers that should tell you, Okay, you really should be taking a test to be competitive in a pool?

[00:22:19] – Maria

Sure. I mean, test optional does not mean brain optional, right? You need to still show that you’re going to be able to handle the coursework. If your academic record, for whatever I do believe that, again, to the earlier point of our conversation, if you have a spotty academic record, that’s the easiest thing to overcome. If you have that, the easiest thing, the thing that makes it easy to overcome is that you then have a stellar standardized test score that allays any concerns whatsoever about your ability to thrive in the program. If your GPA or your undergraduate maybe wasn’t super strong, or if it didn’t have a lot of quantitative coursework, I do think that you should really think about taking that test to show them that you’re not going to flounder or struggle once you’re there. I do think it will help your admissions argument. I also can’t help but wonder if it will help any prospective scholarship money. I mean, even the test optional schools still need to report their scholarship. I’m sorry. The test optional schools still need to report their test averages to the rankings agencies, and those scores still get published.

[00:23:28] – Maria

Poets and Quants does an analysis every year of the average GMAT scores and GRE scores at the top schools. It’s still an important metric for the schools. If your test score, at a minimum, it shows your ability to handle the curriculum competently. But if it helps in any way, their narrative of their average score, they might be more willing to throw a little money your way. I do think that that is something to… I think everyone should take the test. Then if it goes really badly, well, okay, then maybe you course correct and you pretend You opt to not share that, you ask for a waiver. But everyone should at least, I think, try and see if it goes well. Then if you’ve got a strong score, please submit it. Help yourself.

[00:24:12] – John

All right. If you want to check that story out, it’s 8 in 10 B-Schools, expect fierce competition again. This admissions cycle, it’s on the Poets and Quants website. Meantime, get those round 2 apps ready. The deadlines will be coming fast and furious in early I suspect that over the Christmas holidays, there’ll be a lot of scrambling to finish up essays and application questions and get those things rolling in. This is John Burn with Poets and Quants. Thanks for listening.

P&Q Podcast "Business Casual"
How Competitive Will This Year’s Admissions Cycle Be?
ApplicantLab |
December 16, 2025

Video transcript, for you skimmers out there: 

I love the fact that they. Report on this metric, right? The salary percentage increase, I think is an incredibly valuable metric because there are so many business schools out there that are great for so many people. And at the end of the day, these programs are in fact able to do what a lot of business school applicants are hoping for.

They are in fact able to provide a real change in the trajectory of someone’s career. They are, in fact, able to help people leapfrog. Into a higher career stratum than they would’ve otherwise been able to be in. So from that perspective, I love the fact that the FT reports on the salary percentage increase.

So valuable. I think it helps, when sometimes I talk to people at the beginning of the business school journey, I will frequently hear something like, well, it’s M seven or bust, you know, it’s Harvard, Stanford, Wharton, or bust.

And I’m often like, look, slow your roll, man. There are so many programs out there that are going to get you. They might not be the first ones that you think [00:01:00] of, but wow, does that even matter? I mean, whew. Look at some of these numbers. $170,000. That is nothing to sneeze at, especially if it’s one and a half times more than what you were making before business school.

I mean, wow. , That is life changing. , And these schools can really change people’s lives. And I think it’s important to have this metric available because I think it helps open people’s eyes. To, To be a little bit more open-minded. , And I think that’s wonderful.

Where my little quibble is. Is that I believe this is an important metric to report upon. However, I do not believe that it is a metric that should have significant amount of weight in the rankings because if we think about what is the purpose of a ranking, it is meant to be some sort of a representation of relative quality.

Now rankings. The entire concept of them is flawed the entire, for me, the entire concept of an ordinal ranking is ridiculous. Like school versus two versus four, versus seven versus six . You know, like, there, there’s sort of [00:02:00] these tiny miniature marginal differences. I think that school rankings should instead be in buckets.

Like, here is the top bucket, and then here is the also very good, but just underneath the top bucket, the next bucket. Um, but no one, no one listens to me. Uh, but so anyway, to the extent that a ranking. Is intended to be some sort of a measure of a program’s quality. I don’t think that this metric is one that should be included in the weighting.

Look, again, . Life-changing levels of improvements in salary. But when I look at, okay, so these were the top five programs by the salary percentage increase, but now when I look at it by the weighted salary, right, the top five US programs, by weighted salary, it’s not entirely accurate to say that.

Well, these programs, you start with people who have lower incoming salaries and they end up in the same place as the other programs. The numbers do not [00:03:00] really, , the numbers would tell a slightly different story. So if you look at the weighted salary a few years out for the top five programs by salary,

we’re talking about a $70,000 a year difference, roughly 240 a year versus 170 a year. That’s about a 40% difference, which I don’t think is a small, you know, if we were talking 5%, even 10%, I’d be like, yeah, 10%, that’s nothing. It’s, you know, nothing but 40% I do think is a pretty, I think it’s a pretty significant difference, uh, that is worth noting.

And so. Your point about like, well, they were letting in the people who were already on a, you know, if you were making, let’s see if we can, if we figure out, okay, so if we take this, these numbers, then we can sort of back into what’s an implied pre MBA salary, you know, that would indicate maybe something in the mid sixties before MBA versus, you know, one 10 something, [00:04:00] 1, 1 10, 1 15, for these other programs.

I get your argument. Your argument is like, look, these people were already clearly high achievers prior to business school, and so, mm-hmm. Is it not true then that the business school, like they would’ve continued to be high achievers And in fact, this is true, some of the most successful, financially successful people I know skipped business school altogether and they didn’t need it.

, However, I think GMAC often does, polls or surveys of MBA graduates, and I think the vast majority of them, at a minimum say that they’re glad that they went to business school, that they do feel that it was worth, their time. So. How much of this is,, nature versus nurture.

We, we will never know. , But I would gently push back on the fact that I, because these numbers essentially to the extent that they’re lower than say these numbers, it effectively penalizes thes e schools in this ranking. And for that reason, I don’t think that it should be part of the ranking because you’re penalizing a school for letting in more successful people.

But there’s a benefit. [00:05:00] To attending. Like, first of all, if you are a more successful person, think of the opportunity cost that you’re giving up. So the fact that these schools are able to lure away people to give up two years of their salary, in order to go to business school in the first place, I think is a pretty good indicator of the desirability or the perceived desirability of those programs.

Also, I do think that there is merit to thinking about like, who are my peers going to be in a business school? and. If a school is attracting people who were more successful prior to business school, I actually think that that is an indicator of the quality of the school, not only because it shows the people that are willing to give up those two years of salary, but also think about who the peer group is once someone is in the school.

Right? That means that if you are attending one of these schools. This percentage isn’t as high, but you’re surrounded by people who, prior to business school, were already achieving on a different level. And also after they graduate, they continue to achieve on a different level. True. The slope is not as sharp.

Right. But the.

[00:06:00] Result is a larger number. So I think that this implies that perhaps at the school itself, you might be surrounded by people who are driven. some people might say more competitive, which might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but people who are more driven and also after they graduate, they continue to be driven.

And so I think that also implies something pretty powerful about the ultimate benefit of the network because business school isn’t just the two years you go there and it’s not just that first job you get out of school or that third job you have five years out of school.

it’s also who’s your network gonna be and, and who are you gonna call 10, 15, 20 years after graduation? To invest in your company or to partner with your company or to start a company with. so I do think that there is value to attending a school and to have your peers during school and after school be people who were, for lack of a better term, high performers.

[00:07:00] I don’t think that this should be punished because I do think that this does yield a better business school. Experience and a better result in the long term. And so my quibble, again, I love this metric. I think this is an amazing metric to provide, but my quibble is that this should not be given honestly, any weight at all, and certainly not the high level of weight that it’s given, because again, you’re punishing the schools that, you know, you’re basically indicating that I, what I would say is an indication of quality.

An indirect indication of quality, but an indication of quality all the same. You’re basically punishing the schools that have sort of higher quality, quote unquote, coming in. And, and that to me is. Counterintuitive and kind of wrong. And so that’s why I continue to think that this should not be, uh, reported upon.

Absolutely. Tell us. It’s important. I think it’s great to know. I love using this information, but I don’t think it should be used in terms of like, let’s figure out which programs are the , [00:08:00] quote unquote highest quality programs. But what do you think? What did I miss? let me know. Thanks.

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